Shopping the Red Wings Trade Market: Darren Helm
By: Jesse L (@jcleist17)
Red Wings Trade Market Potential
Heading into the 2020-21 season, Detroit Red Wings trade rumors will begin flying at some point and the trade rumors will only intensify as the Yzerman makes plans for the Trade Deadline.
We’d like to take a look at every potential asset the Red Wings have on the roster. That includes Red Wing UFA’s and RFA’s with short term deals that would be considered easier to move around the league.
Two important notes for our series:
These are being analyzed on an individual basis. Packaged deals aren’t necessarily a part of this conversation and any move the Red Wings make on their roster from here on out could drastically change any likelihood of the player moving.
We don’t necessarily want to see any of these players move, but would rather explore the value they could retrieve for the Red Wings. This a measure of what could the Red Wings get back and is it worth it.
There is a reason we all go to the grocery store to buy oranges as opposed to growing an orange tree at home. So let’s explore if the juice is worth squeeze!
On today’s shopping list, we want to see where Darren Helm is valued and how likely it is Steve Yzerman holds onto another aging veteran. He is surely going to earn a 2021 Roster spot, but for how long?
Darren Helm’s Trade Potential
When scribing a series of articles regarding potential departures, there's always going to come a time when heartstrings will be tugged, and feelings possibly hurt.
As described in this series's first installation, a Bertuzzi trade's likelihood is so minuscule that those strings were likely left untouched. Bobby Ryan, although quickly gaining admiration from the fanbase from his story and personality as displayed through a few short interviews, is somewhat far from a fan favorite so far.
So it only fits that in the third installation, we begin to play with people's emotions and potentially upset a few diehards from around the internet fanbase.
It only fits that the elite Darren Helm helps break that barrier. Helm is, to this point, a career Red Wing.
Initially drafted in the summer of 2005 by Detroit in the 5th round, the Manitoba native made the Red Wings full time during the 2009/2010 season. Often regarded in his prime as one of the premier third-line centers in the NHL, Helm's blazing speed (and possibly good looks) made him a fan favorite throughout the Red Wings fan base.
He's had relatively consistent scoring production throughout his career aside from the last two years and produced well in several playoff campaigns with the Wings, including 4 points during the 2007/2008 Stanley Cup Run. Yes, in case you forgot, Darren Helm is a Stanley Cup Champion.
The many years of consistent depth production and speed bought Helm over a decade's worth of contract years in Detroit, with his current deal of 5 years being the longest.
Helm enjoyed a reasonably safe career at center behind Henrik Zetterberg, Pavel Datsyuk, and Valtteri Filppula. But with age, his speed has fallen, and the game's speed has grown exponentially. Speed alone is no longer a high-quality trait, and unfortunately for Helm, he's always lacked quite a bit in the other categories of the game as much as we like to excuse poor performances due to the team's state.
The Value
Darren Helm's situation is straightforward. The chances of Helm entering the 2021/2022 season as a Detroit Red Wing are practically non-existent. He will be joining the unrestricted free agency. Given the depth in the pipeline of prospects who could potentially replace Helm as a bottom-six winger, there's no reason for Detroit to attempt to extend or re-sign Helm. There's also extraordinarily little reason for Helm to try and stay other than possibly liking it in Detroit, as the team is headed in a different direction that doesn't require his services.
He's better served to attempt to find a new home.
With the thought of Helm returning about as far from reality as possible, what could a realistic return be for trading him be? Most of the players in this series will have a relatively high value. Unfortunately, Helm is one of the few who indeed doesn't. If a team is somehow desperate enough, a third-round pick is likely the absolute ceiling for a potential return.
Perhaps a midrange prospect or a potential reclamation project could come back Detroit's way. Helm isn't getting any younger, and his number one asset, speed, has been missing for quite some time. Helm has slowed down in age, and the game has gotten faster in recent years. Repeatedly Helm can find himself in a prime scoring position and lacks the finish to get the job done.
His most significant value will come from his ability to play a 200-foot game and potentially add value to a contending team's bottom-six rotation and penalty-killing roles.
Likelihood
The likelihood of a Darren Helm trade is the most difficult thing to gauge on this topic. Detroit's chance of being willing to, or even wanting to move on from him should be incredibly high. Detroit won't miss his services on the ice, and he's quickly replaced in the lineup. The difficulty lies in another team wanting to take Helm.
There are 16 teams (assuming the play-in format was a one-off) that will make the playoffs. To use even numbers to make the structure simpler, let's take half of those 16 teams who want to add a player like Darren Helm to their playoff roster for a reasonable low return value. The other half of the teams who chose to pass on Helm are either satisfied with their current postseason roster outlook or are attempting to pursue a different type of player.
Of the now eight remaining teams that Detroit could potentially sell Helm to (assuming all 8 of those teams have an asset that interests Detroit for a return), let's cut the number in half again for cap reasons. Darren Helm, especially given the type of player he is, comes with a reasonably high cap hit of $3.85M. Detroit could always retain salary to make the deal work under the cap, but there's still going to be teams that simply can't (or won't) fit Helm due to cap space.
Of the now four remaining teams, let's cut that list in half one more time due to NHL teams' actual financial restraints due to COVID-19. Each franchise has a different ownership group, and each ownership group is struggling at a different rate due to these unprecedented times. While still looking for opportunities to reserve revenue to help recover from losses, some owners are capable of spending to the cap to promote success for the franchise.
Other owners don't have the revenue available to add any unnecessary pieces and even pass on NECESSARY additions due to financial restraints. Helm could potentially add value to a contending team. Still, if a decision is affected by an ownership group's real finances, Helm would likely be an easy target to pass on even if they could add him under the salary cap ceiling.
With only two teams remaining under this model, a deal would have to be made. Of course, these are rough numbers, and there could be more (or less) teams looking to add Darren Helm for the right price, but given everything above, it's hard to imagine it happening.
If Detroit is to retain salary, especially given the real financial issues currently facing NHL teams and their ownership groups, the cost of acquiring Helm would likely move up to a point where it isn't worth spending assets to attain his on-ice services.
Suggested Value
To put it in short form; Anything. Helm is as close to a guarantee as you can get for a player that will not be a Detroit Red Wing at the start of the next season. There's no reason to be stingy at all.
Does a conditional 7th round pick work? Sure. Does a 3rd round pick? Sure. The minimum acceptable return value for a player like Helm is just higher than "future considerations."
General Manager Steve Yzerman would be helping a club looking to contend for the Stanley Cup, so there should be an actual return. The most comfortable return to 'stomach' would be a 5th round pick in either the 2021 or 2022 NHL Entry Draft. Perhaps with some salary retention, Yzerman could push the value to a 4th round pick. Anything higher is Steve "The Wizard" Yzerman fleecing yet another General Manager in the NHL.
Lower is still acceptable considering "something is better than nothing," but a 4th/5th round pick would be a decent return. Veteran loyalty seemed to have left with former General Manager Ken Holland, much to the relief of Red Wings fans around the globe. After Justin Abdelkader was bought out, and Jimmy Howard and Jonathan Ericsson were let go, there shouldn't be any surprise if any "veteran" Red Wing is traded.
The Wings are getting younger and building to the future. Helm is not a part of that future here in Detroit. If possible, Yzerman will attempt to gain some asset to move Helm during the season before letting him walk for nothing but glorious cap and roster space.
#LGRW
