Shopping the Red Wings Trade Market: Bobby Ryan
Red Wings Trade Market Potential
Heading into the 2020-21 season, Detroit Red Wings trade rumors will begin flying at some point and the trade rumors will only intensify as the Yzerman makes plans for the Trade Deadline.
We’d like to take a look at every potential asset the Red Wings have on the roster. That includes Red Wing UFA’s and RFA’s with short term deals that would be considered easier to move around the league.
Two important notes for our series:
These are being analyzed on an individual basis. Packaged deals aren’t necessarily a part of this conversation and any move the Red Wings make on their roster from here on out could drastically change any likelihood of the player moving.
We don’t necessarily want to see any of these players move, but would rather explore the value they could retrieve for the Red Wings. This a measure of what could the Red Wings get back and is it worth it.
There is a reason we all go to the grocery store to buy oranges as opposed to growing an orange tree at home. So let’s explore if the juice is worth squeeze!
On today’s shopping list, we want to see where Bobby Ryan is valued and how likely it is Steve Yzerman keeps his promise to Ryan and attempts to improve his situation at the trade deadline.
So let’s take a deep dive into what the Red Wings are likely to get back for an extremely movable contract and potentially significant offensive producer.
Bobby Ryan’s Trade Potential
After winning the Masterton Trophy, Ryan’s off-season became a bit tumultuous when the two years remaining on his deal with the Ottawa Senators, worth $7.25M a year, were bought out and Ryan suddenly became a free agent. Rumor mills swirled with Ryan seemingly destined to join a playoff contender during the off-season.
To the surprise of nearly everyone, just into the opening of the NHL’s Free Agency Frenzy, it was announced that Bobby Ryan had inked a one-year deal with the Detroit Red Wings for a measly flat million. While Ryan still receives the money from his contract with the Senators from Ottawa, Ryan’s value was kept relatively below the expected market asking price by Detroit’s General Manager Steve Yzerman, with a single year deal being inked.
Once the surprise from the fanbase subsided, the next immediate question to jump out was: Can he be traded?
Ryan’s return last year astounded many. The second overall draft pick from the 2005 Entry draft managed a hat trick in just his second game back and eventually brought his points total of the 2019/2020 NHL campaign with the Senators to 8 points in 24 contests.
Although it could be considered that Ryan never lived up to the hype of a second overall draft pick with a career-high of 71 points in a single season set in 2010/2011 with Anaheim and never touched since he’s enjoyed a solid career despite the issues with addiction.
He’s scored at least 20 goals in 6 of the 11 seasons in which he played more than 41 games and has averaged 0.67 points per game total throughout his career.
The real question regarding Bobby Ryan regards what exactly his future will look like. The concept of “projection” certainly won’t be unfamiliar during the series but will be more influential in both value and likelihood for a handful of players.
Two important notes for our series:
These are being analyzed on an individual basis. Packaged deals aren’t necessarily a part of this conversation and any move the Red Wings make on their roster from here on out could drastically change any likelihood of the player moving.
We don’t necessarily want to see any of these players move but would rather explore the value they could retrieve for the Red Wings. This is a measure of what could the Red Wings get back and is it worth it.
The Value
Bobby Ryan’s value would likely be determined based on the season he’s about to have. Although Ottawa wasn’t exactly far from the bottom of the standings in 2019/2020, they were leaps and bounds better than the Red Wings when it came to being competitive.
The Senators had 46 more goals and 23 more points in the standings than Detroit. Bobby Ryan missed a significant amount of time in a shortened season and ended up with only 8 points through 24 games which would be good for about half of his points per game average throughout his career.
The difference could be going to a Detroit team where he will likely see a lot of high-end ice time. Most pundits will slot Bobby Ryan into Detroit’s top six preemptively. Ryan has mentioned in the past that he was working harder this offseason than ever before and with proper linemates could end up producing at a clip close to, if not exceeding, his points per game average.
Ryan’s value can be gauged in a way that isn’t exactly frequent at the deadline. If he can’t at least return to form, there is no value. If he can return to form, especially given his contract, there is an exorbitant amount of value.
In an 82 game season, 0.67 points per game average come out to about 55 points. Getting a veteran, 55 point producer, for potentially less than league minimum by the time the deal would take place (and the salary Detroit could retain to make the deal even more lucrative), is an insane value.
At that pace and with that dollar, Bobby Ryan should easily be worth a first-round pick if not more. He’s had his struggles lately but at that pace on a basement-dwelling Detroit team, there is no way that Ryan is worth less than a second, coming with practically no cap hit and no risk to the “buyer” other than the loss of a future asset.
The Verdict: No less than a 2nd round pick in the draft. 3rd round picks could be acceptable if there are multiple assets coming back in the deal, including potentially a higher-end prospect or additional future picks.
The Likelihood
As touched upon briefly in the previous segment, Ryan’s situation is fairly unique. If he can return to form he could have an extremely high value at the deadline. If he doesn’t, he will likely have no value at all. So the projection of his likelihood rests solely in the projection of his season.
The impression has been that Ryan is being given every opportunity to succeed in addition to him doing a tremendous amount of work during this off-season to be in his best conditioning ever. Ryan will likely spend the majority of the season absorbing top-six ice time at even strength and given his right-handedness he’ll get a decent boost of ice time playing on the first powerplay unit.
With that type of time at his disposal and all the work he’s been doing, it’s hard to imagine he won’t be successful this season.
If Ryan can manage to produce at a rate of 0.50 points per game playing with the best players Detroit currently has to offer, there’s a good chance that he will be playing somewhere else when the season comes to an end.
He won’t necessarily have any control over what team he goes to since General Manager Steve Yzerman didn’t include any type of protection clauses on the one year deal. Production even further south of 0.50 points per game, as long as it’s on a respectable clip that shows clear production from Ryan, there’s a good chance he’ll be moved.
Furthermore, there’s practically no reason for Detroit not to move Ryan. If Ryan does produce at a rate that makes him an attractive trade target, Detroit still has a plethora of forwards to choose from to temporarily take Ryan’s spot after he’s dealt until the season ends.
Whether it’s another plugged player or a prospect looking to get some end-of-season reps with the big club, Detroit should be all-in if a trade opportunity for Ryan presents itself at the right price.
The Verdict: 80%: After posting only 8 points in 24 games last season there was a good amount of thought that Ryan could be signing with a contender. Adding another clip of production, especially a longer clip with Detroit, would only increase the likelihood of a contender being willing to spend future assets to obtain Ryan’s skills for a playoff run.
The Suggested Value
Here’s where all the fun and the projections come together.
There’s no reason for Detroit not to move Ryan if the opportunity arises but what return would be appropriate? A minimum value would likely be the previously mentioned 2nd round pick, or potentially a 3rd round pick and a fairly high-level prospect. Ryan playing at a respectable clip and being moved for potentially only $500K is an absolute gem for any contending team.
The idea that General Manager Steve Yzerman would have to follow is setting Ryan up with the opportunity to succeed while also gauging the General Manager who makes the deal with Yzerman for everything he possibly can. If the minimum value is a 2nd round pick, Yzerman should absolutely be pursuing a first-round pick.
Under normal circumstances, a player capable of producing 50 or so points may definitely be worth a 2nd round pick or potentially higher. In these unusual circumstances, given the implications on cap and spending that COVID has had on the hockey world, the contract that’s coming with the player capable of producing those points makes the value even higher.
Giving your team an even better chance at winning The Stanley Cup without spending virtually any money is an absolute win-win for General Managers and Owners. Ryan, again under the assumption that he can return to form and be on pace for anywhere from 45-60 points this next season, would improve any playoff team’s chances at winning the grandest trophy of them all. To get that type of extra insurance and likelihood of winning the Cup, the team in question has to pay.
The Verdict: A First Round Pick in the 2021 draft.
If a team is willing to spend the assets to get Ryan then they’re likely viewing their draft position as very low. Sending out a pick that should translate to a late 20s selection, if not 31/32 in the first round, should be of no consequence if it means spending the next off-season celebrating as champions.
Getting a player like Ryan producing at a high-level clip that he’s been previously capable of gives any contending team the extra bit of scoring and depth that wins cups. Not to mention Ryan’s character in a room could be another immeasurable bit of value.
