Shopping the Red Wings Trade Market: Tyler Bertuzzi
The Red Wings have a lot of shoppable players on the roster right now. Who can retrieve good value and who should stick around. Red Wings Rant dissects the possibility of Tyler Bertuzzi moving.
By: Jesse L. (@jcleist17)
Red Wings Trade Potential
Heading into the 2020-21 season, Detroit Red Wings trade rumors will begin flying at some point and the trade rumors will only intensify as the Yzerman makes plans for the Trade Deadline.
We’d like to take a look at every potential asset the Red Wings have on the roster. That includes Red Wing UFA’s and RFA’s with short term deals that would be considered easier to move around the league.
Two important notes for our series:
These are being analyzed on an individual basis. Packaged deals aren’t necessarily a part of this conversation and any move the Red Wings make on their roster from here on out could drastically change any likelihood of the player moving.
We don’t necessarily want to see any of these players move, but would rather explore the value they could retrieve for the Red Wings. This a measure of what could the Red Wings get back and is it worth it.
There is a reason we all go to the grocery store to buy oranges as opposed to growing an orange tree at home. So let’s explore if the juice is worth squeeze!
First on the list is Tyler Bertuzzi. Bertuzzi is the owner of a brand spanking new one-year deal, worth $3.5 Million, thanks, in part, to his arbitration hearing.
Could Yzerman not see the value Bertuzzi brings? Has the relationship soured, due to the arbitration hearing? Are we assuming the worst and Bertuzzi is here to stay? Let’s take a look!
Tyler Bertuzzi’s Trade Potential
In the event of a rebuild, as evident amongst Detroit fans and writers alike, the idea of trading pieces for future assets becomes fascinating. General Manager Steve Yzerman managed to acquire future assets for current pieces twice last season, trading pending free agents Andreas Athanasiou and Mike Green to the Edmonton Oilers (along with Ryan Kuffner) in exchange for two second-round picks (one in 2021), and a fourth-round pick for Mike Green.
The Wings ended up trading the 2020 2nd round pick from Edmonton to the LA Kings for the 51st overall pick (Theodor Niederbach) and the 97th overall pick (Sam Strange). They used the pick from the Mike Green trade at 107th overall to select Jan Bednar.
The recipe for success varies greatly from rebuild to rebuild, but the most commonly accepted ideology is to grab as many darts as you can to throw them at the board.
With the 2020/2021 season just around the corner (hopefully), the Detroit Red Wings have amassed thirteen “main roster” players who have contracts expiring at the end of the year. Each one of them becomes a potential candidate for a trade during the season, specifically at the trade deadline, to potentially earn the Red Wings some more of those aforementioned darts.
Each of the pending free agents, some restricted and some not, have varying degrees of certainty or probability involved when predicting their likelihood to be traded. Bobby Ryan and Marc Staal, both recent acquisitions for the Wings, have already been heavily involved in conversations and predictions regarding Detroit’s potential activity at the trade deadline.
Other names, such as Filip Hronek, have not found their way into that same conversation.
There’s one man, however, who seems to find himself in the middle of the spectrum when predicting a likelihood of a trade; Tyler Bertuzzi.
Bertuzzi’s recent contract dilemma, requesting and requiring arbitration to decide his worth for the upcoming season, left more than a few people wondering if there could perhaps be a strain on the relationship between General Manager Steve Yzerman and the newly signed Bertuzzi. Is Bertuzzi an integral part of the core that cannot be moved? Does Yzerman view the situation differently?
When playing with the idea of potentially trading a very good piece on a recently very bad team, there are a lot of questions to answer.
Although in a recent article we dove into the financial aspects of Tyler Bertuzzi’s contract to explain why he could have and perhaps should have earned more, the idea of gauging a player’s worth on the trade market is even harder to do than predicting a player’s value on the cap sheet.
Every General Manager has their own philosophies and grading charts, from Jim Rutherford to Joe Sakic, with relatively equal players sometimes being dealt for astronomically different values. So how can you truly gauge a player’s worth on the market, other than polling for a general consensus?
Likelihood
As a disclaimer of sorts, the likelihood of a Bertuzzi trade is the first topic on the menu. Fans and writers can tend to get ahead of themselves when composing pieces or discussing ideas and start to view articles like these as if a Bertuzzi trade was guaranteed.
A trade involving Tyler Bertuzzi is FAR from likely. Even if Bertuzzi can be labeled as "complementary", he is still a large piece of the current core. Trading Tyler away will result in a massive and noticeable decrease in the current team's productivity.
A move involving Tyler Bertuzzi leaving the Red Wings could hurt even more-so down the line given his history as a playoff performer. Even if he can no longer find a consistent role in the top six, Bertuzzi’s presence would be missed when it matters most.
Ultimately, the likelihood of Detroit moving on from Tyler Bertuzzi in the foreseeable future is exceedingly slim. Not so slim that the conversation isn’t worth having, but slim enough that anyone could comfortably place a wager that Bertuzzi will finish the 2020/2021 season in Detroit and will likely be signed to a medium length contract to remain with the Wings beyond that.
If there had to be a number assigned to the true likelihood of Detroit moving Bertuzzi by the trade deadline of the upcoming season? Bank on roughly 1%.
The Return - “Multiple Picks & Veteran”
There’s a lot of interpretation that can be had with this particular selection for the “Be The GM” topic of the week. While the other three options are relatively straightforward, “Multiple Picks and Veteran” could mean a variety of different things.
The most likely scenario involving the picks is that they are high end, but no first-rounders. The veteran is likely a lower-end veteran, possibly in his mid 30’s, that could put a bandaid on the gushing wound that moving Bertuzzi from Detroit would create in the lineup.
The other possible scenario is that the multiple picks are lower end but the veteran coming back in the deal is a capable NHLer, perhaps even better than Tyler Bertuzzi. It could be done by a team looking to get a little bit younger and work current players closer to the core of an upcoming group.
Image Courtesy of Capfriendly’s ArmChair GM
In this scenario, the Wings take a 2021 2nd Round Pick, a 2022 3rd Round Pick, and Phil Kessel from the Arizona Coyotes in exchange for Tyler Bertuzzi. The picks are both potentially good value, although not first round and most would argue that Phil Kessel is the better player between the two.
Arizona gets younger with Tyler Bertuzzi, who at 25 fits much closer with the younger generation currently finding their way into the Coyotes roster. Keller (22), Dvorak (24), and Hayton (20) could mesh better with Bertuzzi than Kessel (33), who is in the twilight of his career.
In that scenario, unless Kessel spends the time between now and the trade happening proving that last year was a down year and he’s still capable of 80 point seasons, the Coyotes are the clear winners. There are more current NHL players who went undrafted than there are former second and third-round players.
While the picks are nice, they’re just darts to throw at the board and not of high enough value to move on from Tyler Bertuzzi comfortably. The main situation becomes Kessel who is 8 years older, much more expensive, and produced fewer goals, assists, and points than Bertuzzi last year.
The Verdict: Too low. Tyler Bertuzzi is a lot of things to Detroit and tends to be lost in the conversation about the future core. If all General Manager Steve Yzerman can get in return for shipping Bertuzzi out is a stopgap and a few middling picks? Hard pass.
Bertuzzi is worth more than that in general, and he is especially worth more to Detroit in their current state and immediate future. While in the scenario Kessel could potentially be a better player than Bertuzzi, that reality would only be apparent in the immediate future. The last thing the Wings should be doing at this point is getting older.
The Return - 2nd Round Pick and a Prospect
Similar to the situation with “Multiple Picks and a Veteran”, there’s a bit of interpretation to be had with the second selection of the poll. A 2nd rounder is fairly straightforward, but “prospect” could be any level of prospect which is where most of the interpretation comes into play. What level of a prospect would be coming back to Detroit?
As far as the second-rounder is concerned, it's clearly short of the value that Bertuzzi should have on the market. The meat of the deal is going to come from the prospect involved in the trade.
With maybe an exception at right-handed defense, Detroit still has a need at every position. The prospect in question would have to still be very young with a high upside that would fit into the younger core including Filip Zadina, Moritz Seider, and Lucas Raymond. He’d have to be close to NHL ready if not already playing in the NHL, and would have to address an area of immediate and long-term need.
Image Courtesy of Capfriendly’s ArmChair GM
The Wings receiving Morgan Frost from Philadelphia would be an immediate boost to the center position on a depth chart, with the potential that Morgan Frost could potentially make the Red Wings roster immediately. Frost is only 21, helping him perfectly bridge the gap between the current forward core with Mantha (26) and Larkin (24) and the upcoming core of Zadina (20) and Raymond (18).
He still has the potential to play at a higher level than Bertuzzi and could be argued as a safer bet as the future second center behind Larkin than Joe Veleno (20). In addition, Frost has already dipped his toes into the NHL pool, registering 7 points in 20 games with a relatively stacked Philadelphia Flyers team.
The Flyers in this scenario are willing to take on Bertuzzi and lose the 2nd rounder to help them in what most Flyers fans consider a “win now” window. Detroit has the ability to be patient with Frost hitting his potential, while the Flyers are likely geared towards making the most of the remaining time with their veteran core.
The Flyers lost in the second round of the playoffs to the New York Islanders this past season due in part to the disappearance of top winger Travis Konecny, Having another skilled winger with a proven playoff pedigree (albeit in the American League) to supplement the top six, in the event that happens again, could prove to be a huge difference-maker in a playoff run.
Frost would be mostly expendable to the Flyers with the potential return of former 2nd overall pick Nolan Patrick, as well as with the sound play of Scott Laughton. They also have the ability to move captain Claude Giroux up and down the lineup should the need arise.
The second-round pick for the Flyers would be largely inconsequential if they are truly aiming for playoff success. The condition of lifting the 2nd round to the 1st round in this specific scenario could make it more worthwhile for Detroit, while the cost would be inconsequential to the Flyers if they do make it that far.
The Verdict: Close, but no cigar here for the Flyers. Morgan Frost could be a fantastic talent and still projects to be a top-six center. However, he doesn’t have the potential to overtake Dylan Larkin for the number one center position and there’s an argument that he’s equal in potential to Joe Veleno who is a year younger.
The second half of the deal would have to be a little bit better for the sacrifice Detroit would have to make in the current on-ice product. Tyler Bertuzzi joining the Flyers would likely result in the 2nd rounder being a very late second-round pick, leaving too much stock to “hope” in Morgan Frost. If the selection could be changed to a late first-round pick?
There should be a lot of consideration from both teams to pull the trigger.
The Return - 2021 First Round Pick
Entering the conversation of a single pick, even a first-rounder, being the return for Tyler Bertuzzi comes with a lot of projection. There’s going to be a tremendous impact on the 2021 draft due to the COVID-induced state of the world, even more so than there was for the 2020 draft.
More than a few prospects might fall and turn into steals due to playing conditions in their league of choice. Many prospects might have their stock rise due to absurd performances in their respective leagues due to those same conditions.
For instance, if the OHL does not cancel their season and indeed proceeds with Lisa MacLeod’s suggestion of no “purposeful contact”, the stock of a goaltender remaining in that league may plummet, while scoring forwards will skyrocket.
The 2021 Draft Class has already been ranked as a bit weaker than the 2022 Entry Draft by more than a few scouts amongst the NHL community. Combining that with the uncertainty surrounding the draft class’s performance due to unusual circumstances, the 2021 1st Rounder would almost have to come from a guaranteed lottery team. Not just any lottery team, either. For the deal to truly make sense, the minimal return would have to be a guaranteed top 10 pick at minimum for Detroit to comfortably pull the trigger.
As any Wings fan will tell you, there is no guarantee when it comes to the lottery. To be guaranteed a top 10 pick, you’d have to be trading with the number 7th pick pre-lottery or higher. Most of the teams in that range are not going to be looking to acquire current assets at the cost of future assets.
So the trade, while potentially worth it to move Bertuzzi, is far from likely to happen. It would almost have to be a team emerging from a rebuild rather than a team in the midst of one or just at the beginning of one.
There’s no specific example of a trade for that reason.
The Verdict: If there’s not some type of guarantee that the pick would occur in, at minimum, the top ten picks of the draft, there’s not enough good reason to pull the trigger on the trade. Bertuzzi is good now and sacrificing him has an immediate detriment to the team. Not getting a ready-now piece back will cause more harm than good, so the payoff would have to be higher.
Having an overall bad team now helps with draft placement but won’t do much good in terms of developing prospects in Detroit who are no longer gaining reasonable experience from the minor leagues. If there was a very, very good chance of grabbing a prospect at the top of the draft that could then slot in nicely with Seider and Raymond, there’s a good reason to pull the trigger.
With the uncertainty and overall lack of depth in the 2021 draft, however, it’s best for Detroit to stick with just their own draft choice likely to be inside of the top 10 of that year and hold out for a better potential option for trading Bertuzzi. Or, perhaps, simply keep Bertuzzi for the foreseeable future.
The Return - 2022 1st Round Pick
The final selection is where things start to get very interesting. The NHL Entry Draft Class of 2022 is widely regarded as a deep, strong draft, better than the 2021 draft, and perhaps even better than the 2020 class.
Projections, even this far out, make the picks in that draft much more valuable, with the extended timetable allowing for more teams to trade with and more teams potentially willing to trade. General Manager Steve Yzerman along with his pro scouts could project certain teams falling out of favor following the 2020/2021 season even after acquiring Tyler Bertuzzi, such as the New York Islanders. The potential return on a pick becomes much higher.
There is also something to be said for drafting another potential top-end player at 18 years old when Raymond, currently regarded as the best prospect in Detroit’s system, will be only 20.
Due to the uncertainty of what teams could potentially be willing to exchange a 2022 first-round pick with Detroit, there is again no specific trade example.
The Verdict: If for some reason within the Detroit organization there is a burning desire to lose Tyler Bertuzzi this season, and the question posed does insinuate that, this is likely the most lucrative path for General Manager Steve Yzerman to take. 2022 will see a deep, high-end draft, with potential game-changers ladened throughout the first round. Detroit is likely to have its own top-end pick in this draft and adding a second could be the ticket to changing the trajectory of the franchise in the very near future.
Names like Shane Wright and Jack Hughes (the other one) could be potential money-grabs for Detroit, as well as many other high-end players ranking throughout the top 32 picks in 2022.
Final Thoughts
The best answer still remains; Keep Tyler Bertuzzi. Bertuzzi is worth more to Detroit than he is worth on the trade market. He’s the type of player that Detroit will want in their locker room and on the ice when the team begins making the playoffs. Even if by that time Bertuzzi falls out of the top six in terms of ice time, he still brings value, determination, grit, and drive to the Wings. Talents like his can’t simply be taught.
If Detroit is determined to move Bertuzzi, or if a potential overpayment opportunity presents itself, a 2022 1st Round Pick is more than likely the best-case scenario.
Send us your thoughts in the comments. Should Tyler be moved? What would you accept for him? Who else should the Red Wings look into trading?
