Rooting Interests and Bracket Predictions
For the fifth straight season the playoffs are set to commence without the Detroit Red Wings' direct involvement. Detroit definitely improved from their prior season but still missed the playoffs by a country mile.
But that doesn't mean Red Wings fans can't still enjoy the playoffs.
Given that Detroit is an Original Six franchise who spent most of their history in the Western Conference and the last 7 seasons in the East, it always feels as though Wings fans have more teams to root against than cheer for. What type of storylines can Wings fans look forward to in the 2020/21 playoffs? Who can we conceivably cheer on?
Rooting Interests
Discover Central
Starting with Detroit's own division, Red Wings fans' rooting interest should really fall under; "No one from the Battle of Florida". The Panthers and Lightning have had some entertaining and violent games of late that could make it a very fun series to watch, but ultimately we should want the team who emerges from the Battle of Florida to lose the very next round.
Tampa Bay garnered some well deserved hatred from Wings faithful being the team responsible for eliminating Detroit in the first round of the playoffs in their final two playoff appearances of the 25 season streak. This year's questionable cap circumvention by Tampa, which will allow them to go nearly $20M over the cap once it no longer counts when playoffs begin, is another reason to root against them. There's certain aspirations that Tampa success reflects Yzerman's success at building a true contender but with BriseBois at the helm for his second season, that idea should be fading rapidly.
Florida doesn't exactly have a long history of irritating Red Wings fans despite their recent success against the rebuilding Detroit franchise, but their dirty play (hello Radko Gudas) this season alone should be more than enough to eliminate any rooting interests behind the Panthers.
Donning the very temporary "#1 Detroit Fan (Only in regulation)" tag on twitter, the Nashville Predators successfully climbed the rankings back into the playoffs, thanks in part to a couple of blowout victories against the Red Wings. It's been long enough that we can forgive Nashville for the Shea Weber incident against Henrik Zetterberg, while still hating Weber himself. The awkward usage of a turtle emoji gained negative attention from some Wings fans earlier in the season. The main reason for potentially rooting for Nashville is the simple fact that they made it in over the 2020 Stanley Cup Runner-Up Dallas Stars. The Stars didn't exactly play their games against Detroit with respect, including Jamie Benn ending Dylan Larkin's season prematurely with a dirty crosscheck to the back of the neck during a faceoff. Nashville gets a nod for sending Jamie Benn and the Stars packing at the same time as Detroit.
The Carolina Hurricanes should generate some favoritism from the Red Wings fan base in the Central Division. Andrei Svechnikov, elder brother of Wings forward Evgeny Svechnikov, is clearly a player Wings fans can cheer on. Former Wings goaltender Petr Mrazek could also spend significant time in net for Carolina if healthy even though Rod the Bod tends to favor goalie rotation, even in the playoffs. There's really no reason not to like Carolina as a team and their chances in the playoffs are favorable for a longer-term temporary investment as a fan.
[ CAR > NSH > TBL = FLA ]
MassMutual East
The East Division is basically just made up of four teams that Detroit fans should be rooting against. There’s not really a viable option that helps Wings fans “feel good” and there’s no outcome here that helps Detroit in any way, aside from Washington getting eliminated as early as possible.
Coming out at the bottom here is the Boston Bruins. Not much needs to be said of this selection. Since moving to the Eastern Conference, the Bruins have renewed the Original Six rivalry of old. Marchand's slewfoot of Kronwall a few years back comes immediately to mind when thinking of the Bruins, and in general it just never seems like they're a team we can put the past behind us. The only possible way to root for Boston this season is the hope that they eliminate the Capitals in the first round to increase the value of Washington's first round pick, owned by the Wings as a result of the Mantha trade.
The Pittsburgh Penguins are another team that are just hard to root for if you're not specifically a Penguins fan. The back to back finals against Detroit 2007&2008 are still a fresh memory for most of us, and Crosby's status as not only a fantastic player but consistent whiner makes it hard to get behind the Pittsburgh team.
The New York Islanders could be the least threatening team to make the finals or lift the cup out of the four selections coming out of the East Division. Aside from the singular game where Bertuzzi was given a game misconduct for Clutterbuck's acting skills, there's no real hatred to speak of between the two franchises. There's no benefit for Wings fans if the Islanders make it deep into the playoffs, nor is there any real drawback to it. The Islanders don't exactly jump off the page as a fun team to watch outside of Barzal.
Enter the team who could be both the best and worst rooting interest for Detroit fans, the Washington Capitals. Two detractors for the Caps;
Tom Wilson.
Detroit owns their first round pick.
The quicker the Capitals lose, the better their pick will be when/if Detroit utilizes it to pick a promising prospect in the draft. It's always hard to root for Tom Wilson, especially given his latest theatrics and the lack of punishment for them.
That said, Mantha deserves nothing but love and respect from Red Wings fans. It didn't work out for the player here in Detroit but he's still an excellent hockey player who netted Detroit a ton of value in return. It's pretty easy to cheer him, and fellow former Red Wing Nick Jensen, on towards a Stanley Cup. Not to mention that Ovechkin fella has always been fun to follow and watch.
As far as the pick, Wings pundits around the twittersphere have been advocating that this draft is so wide open that there’s not too much to be worried about picking later in the top ten as opposed to earlier. We could potentially get the same caliber of player at eighth as we could at fifth, so no reason to fret over the late season surge in the standings.
That same philosophy should be applied to the Washington pick. If they get past Boston, there’s little reason to not root for them the rest of the way. The draft is still wide open and we could get the same quality player at 32 as we could’ve in the early 20s. There’s a much wider range that Washington’s pick could fall in, but if it’s not going to fall into the teens, late 20s seem fine to me under the same logic that has been applied to our pick dropping out of the top 5 pre-lottery.
[ WSH > NYI > PIT > BOS ]
Scotia North
It’s difficult to imagine a world where Toronto doesn’t emerge as the winner of the North Division. Often viewed as the Division where there is no defense, including the league’s leading goal scorer (Auston Matthews - 41G) and leading point producer (Connor McDavid - 105P), Toronto’s offense is just too powerful to believe any of the other teams in the division can keep up.
That said it’s still obvious that the Toronto Maple Leafs are still at the bottom of the pile when it comes for teams that Red Wings fans should be rooting for this year. They’re a clear cut rival despite Red Wings legend Brendan Shanahan running the show as President. The only reason Wings fans could have to cheer for Toronto is if there’s money involved. Please, first round exit. Do it, Toronto.
For the rest of the Division, there’s really nothing to look for as Wings fans. Jon Merrill playing for the Montreal Canadiens could be an interesting story-line if you really wanted something to look for. The Winnipeg Jets share a similar trajectory. There’s no real reason to hate or like the Jets this offseason, or in general, as Red Wings fans.
That leaves only the Edmonton Oilers. The Oilers have a decent defensive group but their goaltending is suspect heading into the playoffs. Former Red Wings General Manager Ken Holland leads the way in Edmonton now and there shouldn’t be too much resentment from a long, successful career in Detroit to not wish him well in the playoffs. Oh, and that Connor McDavid guy. Nothing brings success to the league like the greatest player in the league finding success. It’s not difficult to argue that he’s the only real reason the Edmonton Oilers are in the playoffs, and he’s the most entertaining person to watch in the North Division. The longer the Oilers survive, the more entertaining he’ll become.
[ EDM > MTL = WPG > TOR ]
Honda West
Like the North Division, there’s really only one team that Wings fans should be specifically rooting against in the West Division, the Colorado Avalanche. I shouldn’t need to go into the specifics for the long and historic rivalry between the Wings and the Avalanche. It’s been a long time since the heated rivalry between the two teams in the late 1990s, early 2000s, but even as recently as last season there was still animosity and tension between the two franchises based on the events of yesteryear.
The St. Louis Blues aren’t necessarily a rival anymore, although their fans are certainly thinking of us given all the recent sharings of Steve Yzerman’s infamous blue line clapper. There’s no real reason to root for or against the Blues as Wings fans, other than in the first round and hoping they can eliminate the President Trophy winning Colorado Avalanche.
Still a baby franchise, the Vegas Golden Knights hit the league by storm since their inaugural season and haven’t slowed down since, making the playoffs each year of their existence thus far including a trip to the finals in their very first season. Gerard Gallant being the popular desire amongst the fan base to replace Head Coach Jeff Blashill could be contorted into a reason to root against the Knights, hoping they never find the success under DeBoer as they did under Gallant, further (a stretch) validating Gallant’s success as a coach.
The Minnesota Wild are a clear choice to root for coming out of the West. Their successful year this season came as a huge surprise to most hockey fans around the world, and Calder Trophy shoe-in Kaprizov is a delight to watch. There’s really no reason to not root for Minneosta this off-season as Wings fans.
[ MIN > VGK > STL > COL ]
The Brackets
Jesse
Jesse's North Division Bracket, NHL.com
It's hard to envision any team beating Toronto in the North. It's just as difficult to envision Toronto beating any remaining team from outside of their own division.
If there's one team who can do it, it's the Edmonton M̶c̶D̶a̶v̶i̶d̶s̶ Oilers. It might be hopeful thinking. The Oilers have improved a bit on the defensive side of things but their goaltending is still a major issue. Through the duration of the regular season the Oilers had an xGF% of just 39% without McDavid on the ice (and an astounding 68.6% with), so it's fair to question their depth as well.
I can't see Winnipeg beating Edmonton or having a counter to Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl unless Oilers' goaltender Mike Smith completely falls off early. It will be a run and gun offensive showdown in the Divisional Finals if Edmonton and Toronto both advance, putting the Matthews vs McDavid argument into the spotlight. Watch for McDavid to continue his insane production and approach Gretzky-esque numbers in the post-season against Winnipeg and Toronto.
Jesse's East Division Bracket, NHL.com
The East comes in as the closest bracket and the hardest to predict. Only 6 points separate the number 1 Penguins and number 4 Islanders while every other division saw a massive drop off from 1st to 4th. Every series has the potential to go the distance and no team winning can be seen as an “upset”.
The Penguins biggest question mark remains their goaltending. Their defense is responsible, their offense the second best in the league. The only reason I chose Pittsburgh over the Islanders is Sidney Crosby who should be a finalist (but definitely not the winner) for the Hart Trophy.
It would benefit the Wings for Washington to lose in the first round to the Bruins in what will be a long, heavy series, but after the Caps were eliminated in the first round of the playoffs the last two years I just can't see it happening again against the Bruins.
As long as the first round goes according to plan, we can revisit the classic Pens vs Caps faceoff in the Divisional Finals, and see Crosby vs Ovechkin head to head in what could turn out to be the final time. While it doesn't feel like Washington or Pittsburgh will miss the playoffs any time soon, Ovechkin and Crosby aren't getting any younger. Pittsburgh won't be able to keep up with the heavy play of the Capitals as the Capitals march on to the third round.
Jesse's West bracket, NHL.com
The Avalanche won the President's Trophy for a reason. This team coming out of Colorado is no joke and they should be able to handle the Blues easily with the gentleman's sweep.
Vegas is once again a heavy favorite to hoist the cup but it's hard to not pull for the Cinderella Story in Minnesota. Kaprizov will need to continue his production from the regular season and show up as the MVP for his team in the post season to beat Vegas, let alone Colorado in the second round. The Blues don't really have much of a chance to beat Colorado but should take a toll on the Avalanche, leading to a second round exit and upset as Minnesota advances to the third round.
Jesse's Central bracket, NHL.com
In the temporary home of the Red Wings, the Central Division is going to lead to some extremely entertaining hockey. The Predators won their way into the playoffs with a second half surge. The point disparity between them and first place Carolina could mislead some fans due to Nashville's lackluster first half. That said, it's hard to envision Carolina's dominant season ending in a first round exit. Carolina is the real deal behind head coach Rod the Bod Brind’Amour. Their biggest question mark is; “Who's in net?”. Not that any of the options they deployed in the regular season played poorly.
Nashville's Juuse Saros played some phenomenal hockey down the stretch as the Predators got healthy but their offensive depth is a huge question mark going into the series, a problem that Carolina doesn't really have. Add to that the fact that Carolina has potentially one of the best defensive groups in the league, Carolina isn't going out in the first round.
The Battle of Florida is going to be a long and intense series. The $100M Lightning getting a healthy Kucherov and healthy (for now) Stamkos is the difference in the series. But the series is going to take it's toll on whoever wins to the point where Carolina shouldn't have much difficulty advancing to the final 4. Cooper vs Quenneville is an enticing coaching battle but Florida, especially without Ekblad, will lose a deciding game 7 to the defending Champs.
Jesse's Final 4, NHL.com
Both series are going to be extremely entertaining as fatigue becomes a major issue.
Washington's heavy game will get them through their own Division but hard fought series against Boston and Pittsburgh are going to take their toll. Minnesota will face much of the same against Vegas and Colorado coming into the series, but the Cinderella story advances one more round.
Edmonton is going to be flying through the first two rounds against Winnipeg and especially Toronto. McDavid is going to need support to beat a team like Carolina who should have potentially the easiest path to get to the Final 4, and it just isn't going to happen. McDavid is the best player in the league but Carolina has the offense, the defense, the goaltending, and the rest advantage in this series. Smith will have to put up a Vezina caliber performance to take down Carolina and even then that's probably not enough.
As both Carolina and Minnesota advance to the finals, Minnesota's emotional energy as the successful underdog story is going to come to a screeching halt. Once again Carolina has the advantage in every category and will lift their first Stanley Cup in 15 years.
matt
My bracket explanation is going to be exponentially (am I using that right) shorter.
That graphic up top is incredibly misleading, because my Stanley Cup Final was Boston and Toronto. But we can take a peek at the other two losers first.
Florida was able to oust the Lightning after finding some goaltending. Then they were forced to plow through a rough 7 game series with Carolina. Ultimately I saw goaltending being the difference for Florida when it was all said and done.
Vegas was able to take down Minnesota in 5 (which I believed would be due to pent up frustration and taking out a team they saw as vulnerable). Then, in the division final we’ve all been hoping for, Vegas’ experience helped them prevail over the tough defense and high powered offense in Colorado.
I’m picking Toronto to escape the North after taking down Montreal and Edmonton. I see it going down as we all expected it would and maybe, with everything Toronto has had to endure and their immense load of talent, they deserve a fair shot.
Boston is making it out of that incredible East division and a part of me wanted it just for the sake of Taylor Hall. Even without Hall, the perfection line makes Boston a Cup Contender every year.
Toronto over Florida and Boston over Vegas. As a fan, I’d prefer the opposite to happen, but what I drew up for the finals was worth this tragic finals scenario (tragic for a Red Wings fan, at least).
My champion is Boston, but only after overcoming a 3-0 deficit in the finals. Can’t you picture it? Game 4 in front of rowdy Bruins crowd. Game 5 back in Toronto. All of the fans thinking “surely we’re not gonna blow this”. Game six is another crazy Boston party. And then…game 7. Game 7, in Toronto, with the entire fan base as close as they could ever be. I’d spot Toronto a 3-0 lead in the game, but some would say that’s just too mean.
Ah screw it! Boston prevails 4-3 in OT after tying the game late in the 3rd. And Red Wings fans everywhere, rejoice!
wrappin’ Up
As always, let us know who you’ve got winning the cup, which outcome of ours do you prefer, and how crazy are our picks?
