Red Wings vs Lightning Preview, 3-9-2021
Tampa Bay Lightning (17-4-2, 36 points) at Detroit Red Wings (7-16-3, 17 points)
3-9-2021
Tonight's Venue: Little Caesars Arena
All-Time DET vs TB Record at Venue: 1-4-0
Season Series vs TB: 0-2-0
Goaltender Probable
J. Bernier (.910 SV%, 2.94 GAA)
A. Vasilevskiy (.939 SV%, 1.73 GAA)
DRAFT KINGS ODDS
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DET: Puckline +1.5 (+108), Moneyline +280
TB: Puckline -1.5 (-129), Moneyline -345
Players to Watch
Players to watch (DET): F. Zadina, D. Larkin, A. Mantha
Players to watch (TB): V. Hedman, B. Point, B. Goodrow
Detroit Red Wings vs Tampa Bay Lightning Predictions
Jesse's Prediction: 5-1 Lightning
Matt's Prediction: 4-1 Lightning
Mike's Prediction: 5-3 Lightning
Lightning at Red Wings Preview, 3-9-2021
Of all the results that made perfect sense, so far this season, the two games played against the Tampa Bay Lightning earlier this year lined up with everyone’s predictions going in. It was ugly. It was one-sided. And it didn’t make us excited for the next meeting.
Tampa Bay took down the Red Wings, 5-1. The Lightning scored 3 goals in less than five minutes and it was smooth sailing from there. The second game was certainly a tighter defended exhibition, but the stacked roster of the Lightning comes equipped with a Vezina favorite, Andrei Vasilevskiy.
Whether the Red Wings want to try and compete with Tampa’s offense (yikes) or remove scoring from the equation, the Lightning have to tools to outplay Detroit. It’s something that in this era of Hockeytown we’ve grown accustomed to not being the favorite to win, but the Lightning seem to take that notion to another level, especially considering the Red Wings are 1-8-1 in their last 10 against the Tampa.
What do the Red Wings need to do to beat (arguably) the best team in hockey? It would be irresponsible of me to lead Red Wings fans on, considering the Lightning currently own these statistical standings:
Lead the Central division
Lead league in GF/G
5th in PP/3rd in PK
Best shot and save % in the league
Victor Hedman 24 pts in 23 games
Steven Stamkos, Brayden Point, & Ondrej Palat fighting to a point per game pace
Andrei Vasilevskiy 2nd in Save Percentage and 2nd in GAA
But in the world of bouncing pucks on a slick ice surface, there is always a chance. So let’s see if we can find a win!
Keys to the Game
Clear out between the Circles Space in Defensive Zone – Four of the six 5-on-5 goals for the Lightning came between the circles. And the Red Wings were able to hold the Lightning to 2 Even-strength goals on February 5th, by keeping that space clear for the entire game
Stack your Expected Goals Players – It’s nice to have a balanced offense, but the Red Wings don’t even have a ‘top heavy’ offense. What they can do is take advantage of the players that have provided the most expected goals for, per sixty minutes, and attempt to find more than the one-goal for per game they are averaging against the Lightning.
Pray to the Hockey Gods – With everything going right for the Tampa Bay Lightning, eventually, it has to catch up with them. Their league-leading PDO suggests two things: (1) They are amazing. (2) The bounces have to go against them at some point. Basically, we’re hoping that game is tonight (and Thursday). That goes for penalties too. The Red Wings are finally scoring on the power play, so a few extra chances won’t hurt either.
As I said, if I picked the Red Wings to win this game, it would be because I was hoping for bounces to land in our favor. That requirement is silly and ridiculous, so it makes sense, to me, that it belongs in the three keys to the game, since it is silly and ridiculous to expect a win tonight.
I am curious to see if Evgeny Svechnikov is going to continue his expected goals production (even though he is trending down), so I’d say that should be fun to keep an eye out for. There’s also no real discernable difference, from a team analytics perspective, that demonstrates Svechnikov is helping bring more stability to the power play. However, much like his 5-on-5 numbers (which are inflated due to his lack of games played), Svechnikov can at least be looked at as the ‘hot hand’.
He’s leading the team in Corsi For/60 and expected goals for/60. Continue to give Evgeny a shot and see if the pucks keep going in. I’m not sure a coaching and manager decision could be any easier than that.
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