Trading Spaces: The Philadelphia Flyers and the Detroit Red Wings
Written by Jesse L (@jcleist23) with additional Red Wings insight from Matt (@klinkmatt) from Red Wings Rant (@bodhockey) as well as Flyers insight from Dan (@dantheflyerafan) from Brotherly Puck (@brotherlypuck).
For an eternity, the Philadelphia Flyers have been stuck in what I like to call a perpetual loop of mediocrity. In the past twenty seasons, the Flyers have only missed the playoffs five times. Still, of those 15 playoff appearances, since the 1999/2000 season, only four of those resulted in a "Final Four" conclusion to the season, and only one unfortunate miracle run to the Stanley Cup Finals 2010.
Detroit, on the other hand, enjoyed a healthy dose of competitive hockey in that same stretch. Since that same mark of 1999/2000, with one year separating them from back-to-back Stanley Cup victories in 1996 and 1997, the Wings made the playoffs 16 times (missing the past four seasons), made the "Final Four" four times, and hoisted the Stanley Cup twice.
The critical difference between the two teams has been an aggressive approach to their direction. Former Red Wings General Manager Ken Holland, who will likely become a member of the Hockey Hall of Fame one day, earned the ire of many Wings fans late in his career. Due to an aggressive assortment of ill-fated trades that played a role in keeping Detroit relevant to the playoff conversation perhaps longer than they should have been, Holland's past success didn't afford him a longer future.
The Flyers, conversely, have been stuck in-between a rebuild and contention for at least the last decade. Former Flyers General Manager and current team President Paul Holmgren spent much of his career leading the Flyers' front office from a contender's perspective.
The lack of results, coupled with more than a few poorly conceived trades, led to his eventual "promotion" from the General Manager position, and in came Ron Hextall to run the show.
Hextall committed to a "rebuild" philosophy but failed to make necessary moves to truly put the team in a great position moving forward and eventually got the boot as well, leading to current General Manager Chuck Fletcher's reign. To the ire of many Flyers fans, Fletcher seems somewhere between both Hextall and Holmgren. Holmgren was aggressive (not as severely as Holland) to make the team a contender, while Hextall was seemingly lazy to make the team a rebuilder. Fletcher's underwhelming tenure as Flyers General Manager could almost label him as lazy towards making the team a contender.
The Flyers are currently on the verge of missing the playoffs after a disappointing run in 2019/20. Something needs to give for the Flyers to make the playoffs, and for General Manager Chuck Fletcher, the trade deadline might be too late.
Enter Steve Yzerman.
The Flyers and Red Wings could be perfect trading partners. The Flyers are strapped for cash, having just over $1.4M in cap space. The Wings conversely have just over $8M in cap-room to play with as of writing this, more than enough room to help Philadelphia alleviate some financial stress when attempting to make the team better before the playoffs. The Wings have more than a few good players that would help Philadelphia get to the playoffs and succeed there, players who don't necessarily fit the mold or aren't pieces to the rebuilding puzzle. The Flyers have future assets, including all of their picks except for their 2020 5th Round pick in the next 3 years, as well as some reasonably promising prospects that could help them in the future but aren't going to help now.
If Flyers General Manager Chuck Fletcher decides that he wants to push the team to win while the window is open for an aging core featuring Jake Voracek and Claude Giroux, the time to call Steve Yzerman is now. Elliotte Friedman claimed that Detroit is willing to sell anyone not named Dylan Larkin that hasn't been drafted in the past 3 years, and they are definitely open for business.
The question for the Flyers is, "At what cost?"
A couple of quick notes;
All mock trades/proposals are simply estimated to set a base cost line. I also only included one piece moving from Detroit in each trade purposefully in an effort to keep it simplistic, and likewise as minimal pieces coming back from Philadelphia.
All mock trades/proposals are also geared towards both teams "winning". Philadelphia's objective in this article is to win a Stanley Cup. Detroit's aim is to compile future assets to contend in a few years.
I've excluded Tyler Bertuzzi from the article on purpose. While he could certainly be a trade candidate, we don't really know what's going on with him. He was initially injured in January, and it was implied he would only miss the following road trip due to COVID protocols and not being able to fly commercial to rejoin the team. Here we are in late March, and there's nothing to report on as far as his condition.
Detroit is rumored to be willing to give up any roster player not named Larkin and presumably not Zadina. For the purpose of this article, I'm only including players that Philadelphia should be interested in obtaining.
All returns for Detroit are geared towards the future. You won't see many current roster players for Philadelphia headed back in these returns. There's a strong likelihood if Detroit can do everything they want to at the deadline that some low-end current roster players could be coming back just so that Detroit can still physically field a team.
All trades are considered "isolated". I'm not implying that Philadelphia and Detroit should make ALL these trades, so you may see repeated assets being moved or transactions that would make no sense if combined.
Most of the “salary movements” in the first portion of this article are unnecessary due to the pro-ration of salaries at the trade deadline.
Jonathan Bernier (G)
17 GP (16 GS) | 8 W | 6 L | 0.918S% | 2.88 GAA
Starting from the back with what might prove to be the most critical move the Flyers can make, Bernier has had a stellar season so far for the Red Wings. While his stats don't exactly jump off the page here, when you consider the defense he plays behind and the chances he's constantly exposed to, Bernier could come in a solidify one of the Flyers' biggest problems this season; Inconsistent goaltending.
Carter Hart has struggled this season which isn't entirely unexpected. He's still young, he's still learning, and other teams have begun to learn HIM. Meanwhile, Brian Elliot has been a bit lackluster. Still, anyone expecting the 35-year-old Elliot to have lights-out performances behind Philadelphia's often questionable defensive play should re-evaluate their approach to goaltending objectives.
Acquiring Bernier from Detroit would remove the question mark in the net heading into the postseason. If Hart continues to struggle or gets injured, turning to Bernier becomes a viable option that won't necessarily hurt the Flyers. At the very least, it wouldn't hurt nearly as bad as having to rely on Elliot. Bernier will likely be one of the best goalies available on the market this season, and the cost of acquisition likely won't be terrible.
Bernier is a pending unrestricted free agent with a $ 3M cap hit.
The Trade
To PHI:
(G) J. Bernier ($1.5M, P-UFA, 50% Salary Retention by DET)
To DET:
(G) B. Elliot ($1.5M, P-UFA)
2021 2nd Round Draft Pick (PHI)
Bernier and Elliot swap teams, and due to Detroit's salary retention, there's no change in either team's financial status. The 2nd Round Pick might seem a bit high, but the cause for that stems mainly from this upcoming draft possibly being more of a crapshoot than usual. Add to that the fact that Bernier is a CLEAR upgrade from Elliot and Detroit's salary retention to make the trade work cleanly without any additional salary shedding, and you get a higher return.
Philadelphia could also try to make it work with a 2022 3rd Round Pick when scouting has (hopefully) returned to normal, and there's a bit more certainty and clarity behind pick decisions.
Why it works for Philadelphia: Hart has had a rough season, and I doubt very many fans will be delusional enough to believe Elliot could get the job done in the event Hart doesn't shape up before the post-season. In spite of his stats, Bernier has played some fantastic goaltending for Detroit and would likewise do the same for The Flyers. Bernier being a rental is also suitable for Philadelphia. Carter Hart will rebound eventually and regain his reputation as Philly's long-term number one, so Fletcher shouldn't be looking for a long-term fix to a short-term issue.
Why it works for Detroit: The second-round pick in the 2021 draft is a fair return for Bernier. Since Philadelphia's objective is to win a cup, it's reasonable to assume that the 2nd rounder would be a fairly late pick and not all that costly for a team that wants to win now. Given that Bernier is a pending UFA with no guarantee of returning, getting an extra Top 62 dart to throw at the board of future success is a sizeable haul. Elliot and Greiss would become a VERY painful goaltending tandem to watch for the rest of the 2020/21 season, but Detroit shouldn't be overly concerned with pulling out more points in all fairness.
Dan’s Thoughts
“Based on the recent rumors this one could be close to actually happening. Simply put the Flyers’ goaltending has been an absolute disaster all season and they need some big-time help. While Bernier may not be the flashiest name available, his 2.78 goals-against average and .918 save percentage is far superior to either Hart or Elliott at the moment. If he can post those kinds of numbers behind Detroit's roster, he may be able to right the ship a bit behind the Flyers roster as well.”
Matt’s Thoughts
This works because you’d like to get as high a draft pick you can get for Bernier and the only thing that will propel his value into 1st round territory is a bidding war. Without it, a 2nd round pick is a terrific grab. Furthermore, the Flyers are trending down, so any trade for their draft picks is going to result in more potential value compared to the likes of Tampa Bay. Elliott is a welcome addition to the trade to help the Wings finish the season. Cap space utilization isn’t going to hurt us at all.
Jon Merrill (LHD)
Merrill joined the Red Wings on a one-year deal during the off-season and has been one of the more successful defensemen at deploying Detroit's defensive "low event" style of gameplay. His stats, like most of the Red Wings, aren't exactly pretty. But what should entice Philadelphia General Manager Chuck Fletcher to potentially pursue Merill is his ability to play both sides of the blue line. He's frequently on the right side as a left-handed defenseman and still does pretty well there. He's also more oriented to be a defensive defenseman, although he's shown success pinching to keep the offensive play alive on the offensive side of things.
He'd also be coming to Philadelphia as a pending unrestricted free agent, so no real commitment, with a cap impact of less than $1M. Add to that the likely low cost of acquisition and Philadelphia could have a successful recipe to aid their blueline without breaking the bank.
The Trade
To PHI:
(D) J. Merrill ($925K, P-UFA)
To DET:
(C) G. Rubstov ($894K, P-RFA)
Let's put down the pitchforks, Flyers fans. As a member of Flyers Twitter, I've noticed that there seems to be a complete lack of willingness to send prospects (although picks usually seem to be okay) to new destinations to make trades work. But hear me out;
Why the trade works for Philadelphia: Philly's blue line has struggled quite a bit this season in Matt Niskanen's absence. To no one's surprise, Gustafsson's acquisition hasn't really filled the void on the defensive side of things, and Sanheim has taken a noticeable step backward from his performance last season.
Adding a low-cost defenseman like Jon Merrill could help steady the back end heading into the post-season. He's not going to be the type of defensemen that is going to make or break a playoff run, but he will certainly help things along, and he fits the bill of Fletcher's (and by extension a majority of Philly fans) low cost but low impact movements so far as Flyer's General Manager.
Losing Rubstov should be of practically no confidence as he's fallen pretty far down the depth chart and hasn't exactly been turning heads on his current Russian tour. If he stays in Philadelphia he could be given a qualifying offer, but I wouldn't be overly surprised if the Flyers simply let him go.
Why the trade works for Detroit: No one loves a good reclamation project quite like Red Wings fans. Losing Merill is going to be costly for Detroit the rest of this season as the depth chart behind him is relatively shallow. However, with all eyes on the future, Rubstov could be a good center option down the road when players like Namestnikov and potentially Glendening (more on him later) are no longer part of the team. If he doesn't pan out, it's no big deal either since the cost of acquisition was practically non-existent.
Dan’s Thoughts
The Flyers could use a cheap, depth defenseman who actually plays defense. Merrill is a UFA at the end of the season and only clocks in at a $925,000 cap hit. Even a player as underwhelming as Merrill may demand a bit of a higher return though. Rubtsov is on the last year of his entry-level contract, but his career has been plagued by injury and underwhelming play, to a point where he wasn't even recalled to the Phantoms when the league restarted, rather being left on loan in his native Russia. If he wants to have a future in North America, he may still be worth a gamble, but without that guarantee, the Red Wings may want to find another prospect.
Matt’s Thoughts
In regards to losing Merrill, it’s a move that most assuredly won’t harm our chances of not winning the Cup. There is also plenty of reason to believe Merrill could be headed right back to Detroit once free agency opens up. Rubstov coming over feels like a waste of acquisition for the Red Wings. Scott Wheeler ranks him as 18th for the Flyers and repeated the same concerns stated above. Ultimately, this feels like a win for the Flyers because it looks unlikely Rubstov is going to be cracking a lineup anytime soon. If Yzerman could kick the tires on Elliot Desnoyers I might be more excited about this trade.
Filip Hronek (RHD)
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Let's go for that stark contrast, shall we? Going from a low profile 1 for 1 that moves the needle a single millimeter to a potential blockbuster that can change a franchise's trajectory. I personally believe Hronek should be added to the "Untouchable" list for Detroit and it's likely he's just a shade outside of it for Steve Yzerman. I don't believe Yzerman is actively looking to move Hronek, just 23, but he won't turn it down if the right deal comes along. The problem for Philadelphia here is what the "right deal" really means.
Hronek is a right-handed offensive defenseman that's still somewhat reliable on the defensive side of things. Detroit adapting a low-event style of game this season has noticeably impacted Hronek's ability to play his usual style, but he still leads Detroit with 18 points in 31 games. His possession metrics aren't great but they're acceptable, and Filip shows the snarl that loved by Flyers fans. He'll hit, fight, block, gets the outlet passes well, and frequently joins the rush. Imagine Gostisbehere except for not a complete defensive liability.
Hronek is Detroit's top defensemen, but on a more competitive team like Philadelphia would likely be more suited for a second pairing role. He could however join Provorov on the top pairing. If Provorov can adjust his game to make up for Hronek's (few) shortcomings, it could become quite the dominant pair, especially in the offensive zone. Pair them with a formidable forward group and it will be like a power-play every time they gain possession.
Getting a player like that, at only 23, is going to be extremely costly. This is one of those trades that would not only immediately help Philadelphia pursue a Stanley Cup, but could help solidify their defensive unit for years to come. This is also a trade that likely won't happen due to the steep cost.
Hold on tight;
The Trade:
To PHI:
(D) Filip Hronek ($714K, P-RFA)
To DET:
2022 1st Round Pick (PHI)
(RW) Wade Allison ($925K, 2-RFA)
Why the trade works for Philadelphia: Hronek is going to be a tremendous addition. It's not just a short-term acquisition either as Philadelphia would have exclusive negotiating rights at the end of the season to keep Hronek long term. The only issue there would be fitting him under the cap. The entire idea behind this article is that the Flyers should be contending for a Stanley Cup and shouldn't be overly concerned with keeping picks, even if they're first-rounders. Wade Allison isn't exactly a huge loss for the Flyers either. They'll still have a good amount of young players knocking on the door. Acquiring Hronek, especially without it costing the Flyers any current roster players will help Philadelphia make a run this year and potentially form a true contender's top pair.
Why the trade works for Detroit: More darts for the board, and considerable ones at that. First-round picks are always good acquisitions for a rebuilding team even if the picks are late in the round. Wade Allison will also give the Red Wings another strong winger option down the line. He could be on the cusp of being in the NHL at 23 years old and could even potentially make the Red Wings roster immediately after acquiring him. His "top six" potential is still there, even if it's not quite as promising as years past. I wouldn't be overly surprised if Morgan Frost is added to the trade instead of Allison, but it could tip the deal too much in Detroit's favor in that scenario. There could also be conditional picks added to the agreement revolving around Hronek's performance in the playoffs since conditional picks revolving around a player re-signing with the team they've been traded to is no longer an option.
Dan’s Thoughts
Wade Allison has impressed early in his AHL career, but there is a bit of a risk factor that follows him mainly being his injury history. He tore his ACL during his days at Western Michigan and it sharply affected his production during the rest of his college career. Though at 6'2 and 205lbs he's a solid player with a nose for the net and if he pans out could have a very solid NHL career in front of him. The first-round pick would provide Detroit a safety net just in case Allison didn't pan out. Hronek would be an interesting option for the Flyers. The current defense core has not lived up to expectations and could use a facelift, despite being young in their own right. At 23 years old, 24 in November, he'd fit in age-wise with the current group and may be talented enough to help one of the struggling defensemen like Travis Sanheim or Phil Myers.
Matt’s Thoughts
Filip Hronek feels untouchable for the Red Wings right now. But to play the game of ‘are we getting enough back?’, it’s certainly tough to say. We’re not discussing a prospect for a prospect. We’re talking the number one defenseman for the Red Wings right now. And while the Red Wings have a need to keep an eye on the future, there’s no reason (yet) why Hronek can’t fill a spot. Even with his next contract coming up, the Red Wings won’t be hurt by his new cap number. From what I’ve read about Allison, he’s projected to be a solid middle-six winger. But we’ve already seen injuries as an issue with Allison and Detroit would be losing a blue-liner who has accrued the most minutes for two straight seasons. The only thing that really gets me goosed is the 2022 1st Round Pick. It’s not completely crazy to think Philly would be a lottery team next season with a VERY good chance at spending time at the bottom of the standings. But I think I’d want less of a gamble for a defenseman who could fill a top 4 role for most of the NHL.
Troy Stecher (LHD)
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The last of the defensemen that Philadelphia should be interested in from Detroit's sell-a-thon (watch, Fletcher will trade for Staal or DeKeyser), Stecher has quickly become a fan favorite in Detroit due to his complete game. He's not exactly large and can struggle to play the body, but his stick work and skating ability are high-end. He'll shoot the puck, join the rush, and still play solid in his own zone in spite of his far from imposing stature. He's left-handed, which Philadelphia doesn't exactly need, but he's an excellent middle ground in value between Hronek breaking the bank and Merrill being low cost.
He's signed to an eco-friendly $1.7M deal that lasts through next season so he's not just a one-and-done rental, but the Flyers don't necessarily need to commit to him long term. If all else fails they could turn around and sell Stecher at next year's deadline as a pending UFA and try to recuperate some of the assets they'll lose to Detroit. He's an upgrade to most of the defensemen currently playing for the Flyers and could slot nicely behind Provorov on the second pairing, likely bumping Sanheim down to the third pairing, where he might be able to find his stride again with fewer minutes and less pressure.
Stecher will give Hronek a run for his money some nights in terms of being the best defenseman for Detroit and could alleviate some of the pressure on Philadelphia's back end by giving them a viable option after Provorov.
The Trade
To PHI:
(D) T. Stecher ($1.7M, 1-UFA)
To DET:
(D) N. Prosser ($700K, P-UFA)
2022 3rd Round Pick (PHI)
(C ) N. Patrick ($874K, P-RFA)
Why the trade works for Philadelphia: Prosser gets sent back in the trade to Detroit to ensure that while Detroit is selling off half the team they can still field a roster without disrupting the flow of their AHL affiliate, Grand Rapids, and helps Philadelphia fit Stecher under the cap. The 3rd Round Pick, delayed until the 2022 Draft (in case the Flyers still miss the playoffs this year) is the meat of the deal, but Detroit could perhaps get a better return from another team. Enter Nolan Patrick. The 2nd overall pick in the 2017 NHL Entry Draft has a few issues dealing with injuries, including missing the entire 2019/2020 season. Since returning from the migraine issues that cost him an entire year, Patrick has struggled to perform, having only 6 points in 32 games. Although there's an innate desire to keep a former high end draft pick like that amongst the Philadelphia fanbase, and perhaps even the Front Office, it shouldn't be too hard to spin a scenario where losing Patrick won't really hurt. It's also worth mentioning, in addition to the very high risk factor for Patrick, he's a sweetener in a deal Detroit would be in no hurry to execute. So why would Detroit want Patrick?
Why the trade works for Detroit: Adding Nate Prosser is just for season-ending roster deployment reasons. The chance of Detroit re-signing the 34-year-old bottom pair (at best) defenseman is abysmal. The 3rd round pick is fair, but Detroit could potentially land a second-round pick or perhaps a 1st if there's a bidding war given Stecher's high caliber performance and low cost. Adding Patrick to the deal is what makes it more worthwhile for Detroit.
Detroit has all the time in the world for a reclamation project like Patrick. His tenure in Philadelphia has been lackluster but Detroit is a team starving for offensive creativity, which Patrick has shown signs of, and they're going to need more center options down the road and even to end this season if things go according to plan. Patrick is already NHL-ready so he helps immediately assuming one of Detroit's plethora of mid-to-low grade centers is dealt. He could fit nicely on the third line with Michael Rasmussen.
Detroit is still looking at a few years before some of these critical pieces in the prospect pipeline are developed and helping Detroit make the playoffs and pursuing a Stanley Cup, so taking a flyer from the Flyers (lol) on Nolan Patrick could prove to be a great move by General Manager Steve "The Wizard" Yzerman. If Patrick doesn't work out? The 3rd Round Pick could still help Detroit down the line, and losing Stecher is going only to impact the present.
Dan’s Thoughts
Couldn't say ‘yes’ to this deal fast enough. Patrick just hasn't been the same since returning from a migraine issue that kept him out for all of the 2019-20 season. He doesn't play badly, per se, but he will probably never live up to his second overall pick status. Patrick is a guy who Detroit can plug into their bottom six for the next decade and he'll be a perfectly fine pair of hands, but the offensive production may never amount to much. Stecher is one of those guys that has flown under the radar since his early days in Vancouver. He may not be a top guy but he's been very flexible with his ice time and usage. If the Flyers defense could ever put the pieces together with who they have, Stecher would be a perfect plug on the third pair.
Matt’s Thoughts
It’s fun to think about bringing over another 1st round pick for Detroit to turn into a ‘middle star’ (not quite a superstar). Losing Stecher is going to hurt, but I don’t think Red Wings fans should get too attached. He’s already been a healthy scratch because Blashill feels he can’t trust him late in games or on Special Teams. I see something different (and wrote about it in our midseason grades), but if Stecher is a healthy scratch after recovering from an injury, I wouldn’t mind getting a draft pick and seeing what we can do with Nolan Patrick. I wish we could get a higher pick (since it’s very likely Patrick and Prosser equate to very little when it’s said and done), but I’ll take it.
Luke Glendening (C/RW)
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Have you guys heard that Luke Glendening is one of the best faceoff men in the league? Flyers fans, understand that we hear it only too often given the still abysmal state of our beloved Red Wings.
There's been a desire floating about on the Twitter fan base to add some grit to the Flyers' bottom six. Luke Glendening could be an excellent option there. He's one of the better penalty killers and grinders (and faceoff percentage!) in the league. Luke forechecks, hits, fights. He can't be relied upon to put points on the board but given proper linemates he can help put the pressure on and establish offensive zone time, potentially leading to sneaking some of the Flyers' better offensive threats onto the ice. He's been rumored to be in demand this year and last, but as a pending UFA, this could finally be the year that a long-time fan-favorite moves on, even if only temporarily.
The cost of acquisition is quite tricky. The Oilers have apparently been shopping around with a 4th round pick. The Lightning was rumored to be willing to shed a 1st round pick for Glendening and Staal. Glendening seems to be one of those guys that genuinely loves playing for Detroit, so there's a significant threat to any team trading for him that he would just be a rental and would sign back with Detroit the day free agency opens.
The Trade
To PHI:
(C/RW) L. Glendening ($900K, P-UFA, 50% Salary Retention)
To DET:
2021 5th Round Pick (PHI)
2022 3rd Round Pick (PHI)
Why the trade works for Philadelphia: The fans want (and the team arguably needs) some grit and determination on the squad. Glendening brings that, and more. He can alleviate pressure on the center position and will help Philadelphia maintain possession of the puck, leaving more time for the more creative players on the Flyers to produce. Luke can also help to make up for some of the Flyers' shortcomings from their blue line group. At a relatively low cost for acquisition, he's a quiet but essential addition for a legitimate chance of contention. He's not going to make or break a cup run but is one of those crucial pieces that put together a Cup-hoisting team. The salary retention makes Glendening fit cleanly under the cap.
Why the trade works for Detroit: I'd like to imagine, at least that Glendening will come running home at the opening bell on free agency day. Even if he doesn't, the return is fair for the services he provides. Philadelphia could likely get away with JUST the 3rd round pick in 2022 (or make it 2021) but the additional draft pick is a sweetener to get Yzerman to make the move. There was a lot of buzz around Glendening last year at the trade deadline, and there's even more so this year as he's a pending UFA and the definition of the type of player to be moved at the deadline. The additional pick also helps Detroit accept the proposed salary retention which short-term could impact their ability to make other trades that revolve around absorbing cap from teams trying to add significant pieces.
Dan’s Thoughts
Of all the issues facing the Flyers right now, depth forwards is pretty low on the list. Wouldn't be against it, but the draft picks can be used better to fix other holes. That seems like a fair return for Glendening, but there should be other teams far more willing to pay up than the Flyers.
Matt’s Thoughts
Matt’s Thoughts: Absolutely! Luke is probably coming back as a free agent too. Sign me up twice for this trade if possible.
Anthony Mantha (LW/RW)
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Did you think Hronek was too expensive for your taste, Flyers fans? If you did, please continue scrolling to the next player. As a bit of a warning, not only will it be pretty costly to acquire Mantha, the Flyers will also need to shed salary in this deal, adding to the overall cost.
Mantha is a bit of a mystery but has been heavily involved in trade rumors as of late. He's a textbook player for the "look at the team he plays for" excuse. He shows bursts of motivation, speed, and possesses nothing short of an elite shot, making expert goalies look like scrubs with what looks like minimal effort. On a better offensive team, the theory is that Mantha could potentially push 30+ goals consistently.
It's important to point out that not only is Detroit offensively starved in general this season, they've also adopted a "defense first" low-event style of game that a player like Mantha doesn't necessarily fit the mold. He isn't a complete liability in the defensive zone, but he shines when he's focused purely on offense.
The Flyers and almost every team in the league have a clear-cut need for a potential 30+ goal-scoring sniper. Mantha is a legitimate top-six winger on nearly all, if not every club in the NHL, including the Flyers. He can play either wing, will boost the power play, and is signed to a decently priced (assuming he can hit that 30 goal-mark for the Flyers) contract for the next 3 seasons. In case things don't work out all that well, there is NO movement preventing clauses on Mantha's contract.
The Trade
To PHI:
(LW/RW) A. Mantha ($5.7M, 3-UFA)
To DET:
2021 1st Round Pick (PHI)
(C ) Morgan Frost ($863K, 1-RFA)
(D) E. Gustafsson ($3M, P-UFA)
2022 4th Round Pick* (PHI)
Pick Conditions: If the Flyers make the Eastern Conference Finals with Mantha playing at least 50% of the games, pick upgrades to the 3rd Round.
Why the trade works for Philadelphia: The transaction is done under the mindset that Mantha coming in gives the Flyers a better chance at winning The Stanley Cup, meaning that 1st Round Pick will be in the late 20s, hopefully, 30s. Morgan Frost is a considerable loss to the Flyers' pipeline but it isn't an insurmountable loss. The Flyers have a good number of current NHL centers and a few (inferior) prospect center options to take up Frost's lost role. Losing Gustafsson is pro-Flyers, freeing up a roster spot (doesn't have to be a forward to fit Mantha onto the active lineup) and loosening the cap stranglehold to perhaps try and make one more move. The conditional pick thrown in at the end is a sweetener for Detroit not only to take Gustafsson's dead cap space but to make the move when there could potentially be other bidders for Mantha's services.
Mantha coming to Philadelphia alleviates pressure on some of the veteran top-six players by bringing in a legitimate sniper. When Mantha has his feet going he's a legitimate threat every time he steps on the ice, even with a team as bad as Philadelphia. It will be up to the Flyers' coaching staff and leadership group in the room, as well as Mantha himself, to ensure that occurs EVERY night.
If the Flyers find a successful pattern with getting Mantha to play to his true potential every night, his $5.7M contract on the books for three more seasons after the conclusion of 2020/21 season, will feel like a steal.
Why the trade works for Detroit: It's important to note, again, that Detroit doesn't need to trade Mantha. He's one of the best players currently on the team and can be argued to be the player with the most raw skill on the team. Trading him will clearly make the team worse in the present, but given Detroit's trajectory, that isn't the biggest priority. The first-round pick from Philadelphia is another dart to throw at the board. Even in the first round, any pick comes with a bit of uncertainty, hence the addition of one of the Flyers' better prospects, Morgan Frost. Detroit has some attractive-looking options at center down the line but Frost could help solve a problem almost immediately and for years to come. The additional pick is a bit of a sweetener both for Mantha leaving and for Gustafsson coming in. A fourth-round pick is of little consequence and the Flyers have a full year to try and recuperate an equal-leveled asset if they feel the need. The chances of the pick upgrading to a third-rounder are reasonably slim.
Dan’s Thoughts
Dan’s Thoughts: “The Flyers fanbase would meltdown if they traded Frost, but I'd be all for this deal. Realistically, if or when Mantha gets dealt, it will probably be for a top prospect and first-round pick. This could be a deal that could work out well for the Flyers as Frost has not exactly had a great start to his professional career. After producing at a two-point per game pace during his last year in juniors, he found himself in the AHL for most of his rookie season then separated his shoulder during his second game of NHL action during his sophomore season. The streaky nature of Mantha and his reputation as a power forward would fit in well in Philly, but it's obviously a risk given Mantha has underperformed this season, but if he can re-find his game it may be a worthwhile trade.”
Matt’s Thoughts
Matt’s Thoughts: This feels like a good move for both sides. The Red Wings fan base is always quick to point out our need for more depth at Center and our prospect base has potential but doesn’t get someone like Scott Wheeler too excited (ranking Veleno as our top center prospect with a ceiling of 3rd line). Frost does get folks excited and his maturity timetable will fit better with the main prospect core the WIngs have right now. I’m not sure where Gustafsson fits, especially since the WIngs could eat some Mantha salary and try to improve the picks coming back. I’d rather give more to get more (eat Mantha salary to turn that pick into a conditional 3rd). At the end of the day, I think Mantha is staying put in Detroit, but I’d make this trade.
Shedding Salary
As much as we enjoy making fun of Toronto for how well they pay their top forwards (and how they can't build a competent blue line because of it), the Flyers have just over $30M committed to Claude Giroux, Jake Voracek, Kevin Hayes, and James van Riemsdyk. Of that group, only Kevin Hayes is under 30. Giroux's contract ($8.275M) is the soonest to expire with Claude becoming an unrestricted free agent just prior to the 2022/23 season assuming no extension is signed. Voracek ($8.25M) is signed through the 2023/24 season, van Riemsdyk ($7M) through 2022/23, and Hayes ($7.142M) through 2025/26. None of those contracts are ideal for a team attempting to take the next step into being a legitimate contender, which could require signing a high-end free agent that they simply do not have the cap space.
For the trades under this section, I assumed that Giroux is never going to waive his NMC and therefore was not considered. I also excluded Hayes due to his contract duration. The Flyers are going to be stuck with him for a while and likely won't be able to dump his salary until there is far less time remaining in his contract.
Scenario A Trade:
To DET:
(RW/LW) J. Voracek ($4.125M, 3-UFA, 50% Salary Retention)
To PHI:
2021 5th Round Pick (DET)
Followed By:
To SEA:
2021 3rd Round Pick (PHI)
To PHI:
Expansion Draft Considerations
(Seattle drafts James van Riemsdyk, $7M, 2-UFA)
PHI Cap Change: +$11.125M
Why the scenario works for Philadelphia:
The only way for the Flyers to possibly receive a positive return value for Voracek: salary retention. Voracek is on an expected decline due to his age and playstyle. He's putting up just shy of a point per game with the Flyers this season but, realistically, can't be counted upon to perform at that level of production for much longer, let alone with a much weaker team in Detroit. He's simply not worth the $8.25M cap hit he comes with, let alone that there are still 3 full years on his contract. With the full 50% retention, Voracek gets down to a much more reasonable and easy-to-swallow cap hit. While I'm sure the Flyers would love to shed his FULL impact if they were to lose him, it's still much better than a buyout and it saves them from having aging and the declining player taking up right around 10% of the current cap space for the team. The 5th round pick is likely as high as Detroit would go even with the retention, but it's better than losing an asset to move him.
The trade with Seattle is to ensure they take James van Riemsdyk. The third-round pick for that guarantee seems relatively reasonable. JVR has had a successful campaign in point production this year but he still comes with a massive cap hit with term remaining. While Seattle would have no problems cap-wise absorbing that hit, we saw in the Vegas Expansion Draft that if you want a player moved, you might have to pay a premium. Despite being the best goaltender available, Marc-Andre Fleury was selected by Vegas only after Pittsburgh paid them a 1st round pick to do so. I'll always have the belief that Pittsburgh got ripped off thanks solely to Detroit deciding to expose Petr Mrazek over Jimmy Howard.
Why the scenario works for Detroit:
Voracek is still a viable player and with the salary retention he could live up to the contract for the first season. After that, I have little confidence that his play would be worth the $4M+ hit. The primary value after that first year is bringing in another Czech Native and veteran presence to help Filip Zadina (and perhaps Filip Hronek) continue to develop in the NHL. There's a lot of things that, as fans, we don't get to experience. Adding another Czech to the team who has been around the block could prove to be a worthwhile comfort to the young, promising Filip Zadina. He could even mesh well with the plethora of Swedes on their way to Detroit's roster soon. The 5th round pick, to a team that has (currently) 6 picks in the first 3 rounds, is of no consequence to losing.
Dan’s Thoughts
The Flyers may soon be at a point where they'd be desperate enough where clearing this kind of cap may be worth it, but it doesn't seem right. Quite frankly, it feels like this is backward. Moving JVR, even eating a bit of his contract (2x$7), makes much more sense than trying to trade Voracek and eating his (3x$8.25). They should try to trade Van Riemsdyk and cash out on the improved season he had, then give Seattle whatever they want to take Voracek and his entire salary off the books. Though if we're focusing on the deal as proposed, the Flyers wouldn't deal Voracek and eat half of his $8.25 million for three more years for just a fifth-round pick. And there's a good chance it would take more than a third-round pick for Seattle to outright take JVR.
Matt’s Thoughts
I can’t quite put my finger on this one, because I don’t think we need to bring a Czeck player into the locker room for Zadina to be successful. That is certainly a “cherry-on-top” situation. If Voracek comes in and works on the second line with Zadina, it fills a similar roster spot as Bobby Ryan, with twice the offensive output. That double in production comes with over 4X the salary (in this situation). In the end, we lose a draft pick and pick up a more talented top-6 winger. As we move forward another season do we need to consider making more space for our prospects to get a fair shot or is having Voracek on the ice (to help develop the rest of the team) a better way to manage this team’s future? With the 5th round pick being the asking price, it’s not going to destroy our prospect base and it might be better to see what Zadina could look like with a skilled winger like Voracek entering the zone with him. Go for it.
Scenario B Trade:
To DET:
(RW/LW) J. Voracek ($8.25M, 3-UFA)
(D) S. Gostisbehere ($4.5M, 2-UFA)
(RW) W. Allison ($925K, 1-RFA)
2022 2nd Round Pick (PHI)
To PHI:
(C ) F. Nielsen ($5.25M, 1-UFA)
(LW) T. Hirose ($825K, P-UFA)
PHI Cap Change: +$7.5M
Why the scenario works for Philadelphia:
"WHY WOULD WE PAY MORE TO GAIN LESS?!" screams every Flyers fan at this scenario. The cap change is only for this season and keeps Voracek's entire contract dumping at a minimal cost. The Flyers change in cap space after next season just odd this move would raise to $12.75M once Nielsen's contract expires as well, just in time for Couturier's inevitable raise and perhaps re-signing captain Claude Giroux, albeit to a much lesser salary. I don't really think Nielsen would be seeing much ice time in Philadelphia although he could be a pretty good option for Lehigh Valley assuming there's a decent amount of AHL graduates next year. Hirose shows glimmers of promise as a potential "Top 9" playmaker and could be worth re-signing for the Flyers as well at a likely minimal cost. Worst case, again, Hirose becomes a good option for Lehigh Valley as prospects graduate to the big time.
The loss of Wade Allison is costly but not overly so with the addition of Hirose. The second-round pick is a pure loss but that's the cost of doing business when you're trying to shed over $8M in cap space for a player on a trackable decline that's over 30.
Gostisbehere joins Voracek on the move as a double-edged sword. Ghost has been hit or miss as of late and often finds himself in Philadelphia's crosshairs for blame and ridicule. He's done relatively well this season but still comes with a sizeable cap hit that isn't doing the cash-strapped Flyers any good. He could be considered for a "fair value" return, which is why the actual "cost* of the trade remains reasonably low despite the salary being shed. To remind the readers again, one year of Marc Staal at $5.7M was worth losing a second-round pick. Attempting to move $2.5M more dollars with 3 full seasons remaining is going to cost A LOT more.
Why the scenario works for Detroit:
The big ol' asterisk of "We aren't trying to win right now" comes into play big time for Detroit. As-is, Detroit is scheduled to have over $46M in cap space this summer, so they can comfortably absorb the $12.75M+ coming their way from Philadelphia. Voracek can still play, albeit not at the level he should to earn that contract, and could slot nicely into Detroit's top 9 for at least the first season he's there. As mentioned previously, you can't discount Filip Zadina's comfort by having a fellow Czech who's an experienced veteran in the locker room.
Gostisbehere becomes an interesting reclamation project for Detroit. Flyers' fans will constantly remind you of his one season of 65 points in 2017/18, but he's failed to come even close to that mark since then, averaging only 0.4 points per game as an offensive defenseman in the 3 following seasons.
Wade Allison is the first "positive" return on the trade, a decently high-end prospect playing RW who is on the cusp of joining the NHL. He's 23, and as of writing this article, he has 6 points (3-3) in 5 games for the Flyers' AHL affiliate, the Lehigh Valley Phantoms. Aside from Lucas Raymond, the Red Wings don't have many right-handed options in the pipeline that are likely to be "top six" impact players.
Losing Nielsen is a fan fantasy that will temporarily alleviate the incoming income between Voracek and Gostisbehere. Nielsen is currently playing for the taxi squad and shouldn't be considered a loss at all.
Losing Hirose could sting for some Wings fans, but realistically it's not a terrible loss. He's doing well in Grand Rapids (3-9-12 with 11 GP) but hasn't been able to stick with Detroit. Excluding his fantastic start in 2018/2019 where he had 7 points in 10 games, he's managed only 9 points in 32 contests for Detroit since then and isn't a likely candidate to be brought up unless Detroit REALLY hits it out of the park at the deadline.
Dan’s Thoughts
Now, this is an interesting deal. Clearing two bad contracts but taking a shorter albatross in return. Getting Voracek and Ghost off the books is $12.75 in freed cap space for the following two seasons while Nielson is making $5.25 for only one more year. If the Flyers are serious about shedding cap space, this is the kind of deal that would need to happen if it was on a large scale. As a Flyers fan, I can honestly say I have no idea who Taro Hirose is, but the Lehigh Valley Phantoms can never have too many middle-of-the-road prospects. It's an addition by subtraction scenario that may seem bad at face value, but that is a lot of free cap space that can be used for a legitimate addition in free agency or via trade.
Matt’s Thoughts
A part of me says “Nielsen for Gostisbehere, Allison, and Voracek. Why not?” But flexibility has been the key to every decision Steve Yzerman has made in the last two seasons. So has he been making these decisions to one day be able to bring in a guy like 31-year-old Voracek? My instinct on that answer is ‘no’. And if we want to strictly consider this a cap dump, the Flyers would need to pay a higher price for us to take on five years of salary (after this year) between Gostisbehere and Voracek. I already discussed how Wade Allison doesn’t get me excited and a second-round pick is what we received from the Rangers to take on Marc Staal for one year. Do we get more talent for Gostisbehere and Voracek, you could certainly make that assessment, but is that the reason to spend our cap? It should be to get loads of future talent. I am confidently stating ‘no’ to this deal, strictly from the basis of losing our flexibility. This trade probably works better for a team that isn’t rebuilding.
Scenario C Trade:
To DET:
(LW) J. van Riemsdyk ($7M, 2-UFA)
(G) S. Ersson (Un-signed)
2021 4th Round Pick (PHI)
To PHI:
2021 7th Round Pick (DET)
PHI Cap Change: +$7M
Why the scenario works for Philadelphia: You want a straight-up cap dump? You got it. JVR has been giving some Flyers fans amnesia with the way he opened the season, but this is the same JVR who costs $7M a year to produce less than a point per game and let the team down in critical moments. He only scored 19 goals last year in 66 contests (40 points). He followed that up with only 2 goals in 12 playoff games during the Flyers' lackluster run. He was off to an explosive start this season but has simmered down lately with only 6 points in 16 contests during Philadelphia's terrible month of March. I don't think many Flyers fans need to be told this, but just in case; It's only going to get worse.
Taking advantage of JVR's solid year statistically so far in this campaign is a fantastic idea to dump his salary at a minimal cost. The Flyers lose goaltending prospect Ersson and a 4th round pick and get back a minimal return, but minimal is still something. Hanging onto one great quarter of a season for JVR will end up costing the Flyers even more to try and offload his salary even as his term diminishes.
Why the scenario works for Detroit: Name a better love affair than the Detroit Red Wings and Sweden. Aside from a slightly upgraded 2021 Draft Selection, the real prize for taking on JVR's contract is Ersson. The Swedish goaltender played 40 games for the SHL's Brynäs IF and posted a respectable 2.88 Goals Against Average and a save percentage of 0.913%. Those stats were posted as a 21-year-old in a mens' league for the second-worst team (per standings) in the SHL.
Filip Larsson was coming with a lot of promise but has been invisible since posting a tremendous record in the NCAA. He's played poorly professionally since then. Keith Petruzzelli could be on his way from his own impressive NCAA career. Adding Ersson to the pipeline gives Detroit a better outlook on future goaltending when the team starts to contend, and they can take their time (sorry, Carter Hart) to develop Ersson.
Dan’s Thoughts
Pretty sure I've thrown a very similar scenario out in one of my angry tirades on Brotherly Pod before. Van Riemsdyk is currently in the middle of his best season in Philadelphia, and one of the best of his career. Again, if the goal is to clear cap space, it may have to come down to this, but a seventh seems low, especially with the addition of Ersson, who seems to have some promise as a 21-year-old goalie prospect. I'd gladly do JVR and a fourth-round pick for a seventh straight up though. Anything else from the Flyers side may require a boost in return from Detroit.
Matt’s Thoughts
With the Red Wings ‘light’ on Goalie prospects and JVR’s contract being more affordable than taking on Voracek and Gostisbehere, this is a ‘yes’ from me. The differences between this trade and the last one aren’t subtle. The flexibility is still within reach with this ‘cap dump’ and upgrading the 7th round draft pick doesn’t hurt either.
The Conclusion
The Flyers are still stuck in this awkward spot that they've been for quite a while. No one, including the Flyers' front office apparently, has a definitive answer as to what the team's trajectory is supposed to be. Are they sellers? Are they buyers? Nobody really knows. Some of the veterans on the team are struggling, some expectedly so, while some of the younger players on the squad have also taken steps back. Do the Flyers really start selling based on what can be cheaply interpreted as a bad year for everyone involved?
This whole article aside from the "Bonus Round" was written from a perspective of buying at the deadline. Fletcher has made comments in the past that he has faith in the Flyers, veterans and youngsters alike, to be able to turn the corner and relocate what should have been the drive and play to make the team a legitimate contender coming out of the East Division.
Given Philadelphia General Manager Chuck Fletcher's actions so far, I wouldn't be surprised if none of these trades with Detroit took place. I won't be surprised if NO transactions occur this year, and Fletcher remains content with the status quo.
Detroit, on the other hand, will actively pursue suitors for what seems like the entire team. While there's absolutely no rush to move Mantha, Hronek, or any player who isn't a pending Unrestricted Free Agent, Detroit's General Manager Steve Yzerman is likely to listen to any offer on all but a select few players. The trajectory of Detroit is clear, and some young players such as Smith, Cholowski, Rasmussen, Svechnikov, etc, are knocking on the door of opportunity, seeking a full-time slot on Detroit's lineup as established players begin to leave to compile resources for the future.
Some of these trades are going to happen for Detroit. Whether or not these trades send quality players to the Flyers is up to Fletcher, but from the rumor mill, it's likely that Yzerman is already taking a significant number of phone calls for the availability and cost of some of his roster.
#LGRW
#AnytimeAnywhere
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