Detroit Red Wings 2021 Midseason Grades
Red Wings Rant Mid-Season Grades
Red Wings Fans, media relations, Red Wings executives, and hockey pundits all knew what was in store for the 2021 Season. Despite the additions of Bobby Ryan, Vladislav Namestnikov, Thomas Greiss, and Troy Stetcher, we still pegged the Red Wings to finish last in the division while possibly flirting with the 7th spot. In the grand scheme, nowhere near the playoff conversation.
We hoped to see and feel a few different improvements, but the best-case scenario was limiting the number of losses that eclipsed 4+ goal deficits. I think the Red Wings look improved on some nights and look like they’ve taken a few steps back on other nights. The intelligent thing to do with that observation is to remember that nothing will compare to this season’s obstacles. The mental exhaustion will sure outweigh the physical wear and tear.
And on top of that, the Red Wings have been hit hard by COVID protocols and the injury bug. Those have certainly hurt the chances of seeing an improvement on the Win/Loss record, but it also increased the number of folks we have only seen small samples. We’d still like to provide some insight for those players, but with a limited sample size, any analysis or conclusions could be drastically changed by an extra week of games. We do our best but have marked the players with too small a sample size with ‘incomplete.’
Let’s head into the analysis of each Red Wing on the roster. You will be hearing from Matt, the lead editor and content producer for the Brothers of Discussion.
Forwards
Tyler Bertuzzi, B+
(9 GP, 5 G 2A, Points Per 60 2.38)
Tyler Bertuzzi is a great name to start within these player grades:
1. As a forward, he’s first in line if we do alphabetical order.
2. He leads all forwards (who have played at least nine games) in points per sixty.
Bertuzzi appeared to be the anchor for the 1st line to find success. We say that the first line fell into once Bertuzzi started missing games (Larkin’s points per game dropped from .78 to .31). The same can be said for the Red Wings power play.
The Red Wings just finished a 0-for-40 streak on the power play, and the fact that a majority of Tyler’s production can be attributed to the power play is a significant factor. Tyler is not the most skilled in deking and won’t be top of mind when hockey fans think of ‘elite’ hockey players. But Bertuzzi does the right things on the Power Play, and it makes up for a lot of 5-on-5 opportunities that fall by the waist side due to Bert and the top line's challenging defensive assignments.
For everything Bert is asked to do for this team from every corner of the ice, he nearly cracks the point per game pace. And that’s where he earns a B+ from Red Wings Rant. Let’s hope he comes back sooner than later because not only do the Red Wings miss Bert, we’re sure Larkin’s production does too.
Mathias Brome, D+
(21 GP, 1 G, Points per 60 .21)
Mathias Brome is undoubtedly a feel-good story for the Detroit Red Wings, but he may only be that because of the struggles on the ice, and redemption for anyone feels excellent.
Brome’s first goal of his career was a moment of pure jubilation. Poor shooting percentages and analytics tell a tale of poor puck possession and worse expected goal numbers.
Brome climbs the ladder to ‘middling’ when we take away his on-ice performance and focus on the individual. His individual expected goals are suitable for 6th best for all forwards, but he drops to the team's bottom when measuring puck possession through individual Corsi.
For Brome to improve, his shot selection and positioning will need to be consistent, but the offensive zone’s time needs to increase and shot attempts. Until that happens, Brome is going to continue to struggle.
Adam Erne, D+
(16 GP, 2 G 3A, Points per 60 1.60)
Adam Erne is neck and neck with Dylan Larkin for Points Per 60. A couple of caveats come with that. Larkin has been playing with lingering injuries and has more demanding assignments for opponents. Erne’s three assists all came in as secondary assists.
I’m still fine saying that Erne is doing okay for what we should expect of Erne’s production. He has eclipsed last season’s totals, and how much we're expecting? Plus, despite his projections showing he is on the losing end of player vs. player battles, his actual GF% is 50%.
What I’m not cool with is team-leading xGA per60 of 2.41 and his xGF% of 43.02. Erne is not counted on to be an offensive threat, but he is counted on to hold his defensive assignments. Losing most of the battles when it comes to puck possession and expected goals don’t do us any good.
Erne is 1st on the team in hits/60 but could stand to block a few more shots by getting into a better position (like his, sometimes, linemate Luke Glendening who leads the team). If those blocked shots ticked up, the xGA could swing in his favor, and his overall performance could start to even out.
Robby Fabbri, B-
(19 GP, 5G 6A, Points per 60 2.09)
Robby Fabbri has been steady with his points per 60 over two years, with 2020 being 2.07 and 2021 being 2.09. In a season where the roster has been a revolving door, it’s good to see improvement, even if barely significant.
Fabbri’s responsibilities increased this season, and he has been asked to center the 2nd line (for a majority of the season) and help in the growth of young Filip Zadina. While Zadina hasn’t made leaps and bounds to relevancy, and Fabbri’s face-off percentage doesn’t beg for Robby to continue to be the 2nd line center going into next season, everything else about his game has been impressive.
Fabbri’s been able to find better positioning and win puck battles better than he was able to last season. Fabbri’s xGA/60 decreased from 2.57 to 2.10 because of that. However, we have also seen a decrease in Fabbri’s expected goals per 60, dropping from 1.90 to 1.65. It’s disappointing because we could be seeing a much better result from a goals differential perspective for Fabbri. Still, he ultimately stayed in a reasonably similar position when compared to last season.
You’d like to see the Expected Goals For Percentage over 50% because it means a player brings more offensive production than he is giving up. While Fabbri enjoys the fruits of a bouncing puck, with the highest PDO on the team, it could undoubtedly bounce away from him and get out of hand at any moment.
Valtteri Filppula, F
(20 GP, 2 G 3A, Points Per 60 of 1.02)
Valtteri Filppula will not change any team into a Stanley Cup Contender. Val is here to help ice a team, and overanalyzing his performance thus far feels like a waste of time. He is one of the worst offensive producers on the team and is 4th for xGA/60. Destructive on both ends of the ice from an analytics perspective.
He won’t be on this team much longer, so we have to grin and bear it. He gets an ‘F’ because nothing is going right, and some attention to his disaster of a season might help push him off the team.
Sam Gagner, C+
(20 GP, 4 G 5 A, Points Per 60 of 1.88)
Surprisingly enough, Sam Gagner has brought tremendous value to this team. His league minimum contract makes him very easy to grade out because his only ‘wrong-doing’ would be taking a roster spot from one of our prospects. And I don’t blame him for wanting to get paid, so it’s not even on him.
The Red Wings have been looking to save money wherever possible (to the detriment of players), Gagner has been a bright spot. He’s just recently started popping up on the scoring sheet, but better late than never. Even judging him ‘pre-hat-trick,’ his low cost makes it easy to stomach.
Besides the ‘Points-Per-60’ that is higher than Larkin’s (just saying) and his rank of 6th for team forward’s expected individual goals, Gagner also has the lowest amount of goals against per 60 and expected goals against per 60. Some of that has to do with the opponents he is paired up with, but again: better he leads the team in expected goals for percentage than not.
Luke Glendening, C-
(26 GP, 3 G 5 A, Points Per 60 of 1.29)
Luke Glendening leads the league in Face-Off Percentage. Have you heard this? Because if you haven’t, that’s the first tell that you either don’t watch Red Wings games or you watch it on mute. Considering that means you’re purposefully muting Ken and Mickey, I don’t know which is worse.
Alright, so besides that bright spot that might net the Red Wings a draft pick, Luke Glendening has been an analytics dumpster fire. He is in the bottom four forwards for puck possession (despite all of those face-off wins), and even though he comes packed with a defensive pedigree, his on-ice numbers show he is the third-worst on the team in regards to expected goals allowed.
These numbers suggest Glendening and his linemates turn the puck over, wasting puck possessions, and aren’t doing enough to prevent scoring chances. Luke is still 2nd on the team in hits and first in shots blocked. Don’t tell Glendening’s bruised body that he isn’t netting a positive with his on-ice play because it’ll turn on him.
Luke isn’t on the team to score goals, but it’s clear that this system, created to limit offensive scoring chances, really hurts a Luke Glendening. Luke is involved with critical face-offs and goes up against the opponent's top talent because of that.
I can’t put Luke in the ‘D’ range for having challenging assignments and getting banged up because of it, so he’s a low ‘C.’
Darren Helm, C+
(19 GP, 1G 2A, Points Per 60 of .67)
Like most Red Wings forwards, I feel like everyone gets a pass because they are deemed ‘defensive specialists’ of some sort. Helm may not be a great offensive contributor from a results standpoint, but he’s 2nd on the team (behind Mantha) in Corsi For per sixty. To sum up, Helm’s on-ice opportunities are riddled with pucks being whipped at the net.
Throwing the puck at the net has helped Helm be the 4th best forward in common goals-for-per-sixty and makes it easier for me to put a ‘+’ next to his name instead of ‘-. ‘
His defensive performance should outweigh Helm’s lack of production, but he’s ranked 5th amongst forwards in expected goals against per 60. I want Helm to better than ‘middling’ in that regard, and hopefully, he can be elevated to a ‘B’ range by the end of the year.
Taro Hirose, Incomplete
(6 GP, 2A, Points per 60 of 1.39)
I am not going to sugarcoat it here. Taro Hirose needs a boost of confidence when he returns to the lineup. His numbers identify his on-ice plays like a top 6 forward. His actual and expected numbers rank high (despite a small sample), but his individual expected goal numbers (per sixty) are only better than Valtteri Filppula’s. He has to do more than reap the benefits of those he is playing around. Take some initiative and shoot the puck.
Dylan Larkin, B+
(24 GP, 6 G 8A, Points Per 60 of 1.71)
Dylan Larkin’s expected goal totals help tell the story of how COVID and injuries have affected his season. Despite his high effort game putting Larkin into a respectable territory for desired goals, the actual number of pucks hitting the back of the net are where he is hurting.
Larkin is a positive possession forward (+50% in both Corsi and Fenwick scores), and it’s his speed and hockey smarts that help him control the puck. However, Larkin does have a low (5.6%) shooting percentage than his career average of 9.2% and a league average of 9.6%. But we should consider how much his injury (we don’t know precisely when it became a problem) and his linemates (the struggling Anthony Mantha and losing Bertuzzi) has affected his play.
If it were strictly about measuring goals and assists, this would be a lower grade. But we know that Larkin is now the leader of this sinking ship, and while you might expect to see his effort drop, we saw the effort stay at a high level WHILE he was fighting through an injury.
He’s earning that ‘C’ on his jersey every night, and I’m excited to see some stability return to this lineup so Larkin might make a jump into ‘A’ territory.
Anthony Mantha, C+
(27 GP, 7G 6A, Points Per 60 of 1.62)
Well…here we go…
Mantha’s season has been a complete and utter disappointment. Mantha should not be 10th on the team (for forwards) in Points Per 60. I know I sound like ‘that fan’ when analyzing the team's best player and giving him a hard time, but it’s time to play better when you get the paycheck. And Mantha has regressed.
Whether you want to blame Mantha’s play on the coach, COVID, or the fact that Mantha realizes he’s going to be on a lousy team for at least two more seasons after this one, you can’t argue Mantha’s performance has been ‘great.’
I want to analyze Mantha and show there is an effort in his game. But like Larkin, the Goals Against have piled up at an alarming rate, and the shot percentages aren’t there.
Mantha’s 10.94 shot percentage is the worst of his career (like Larkin), but you could make the argument that his shot selection is worse. Mantha, last season, was creating .81 individual expected goals per 60, while this year, that same statistic sits at .63. Since that stat measures shot selection and the chance of going into the net, this suggests that Mantha is less patient, possibly has poor positioning, or the opponent is playing him tighter and giving up fewer opportunities.
On top of that, Mantha has a low on-ice shot percentage, which measures his success and his linemates' success. Of the bottom six forwards in this category, from a 5-on-5 perspective, three of those forwards are Larkin, Bertuzzi, and Mantha. The difference between Bertuzzi and Mantha, right now, is the power-play success.
If Mantha had that power-play success, as an elite forward should be expected to carry, the Red Wings might look better in the standings, and Mantha’s minutes per game would not be shrinking. However, he is struggling, and his minutes are dwindling.
I am sure Mantha can turn this around, but for the sake of measuring his current performance, a C+ is more than fair.
Vladislav Namestnikov, B-
(26 GP, 5G 5A, Points Per 60 1.41)
I think we should be happy with Vladdy’s production on this team. At the start of the season, we said Namestnikov wouldn’t lead the team at any one statistic, but he’s so well-rounded that he’d make an impact everywhere on the ice.
On defense, Vlad is both positionally sound and physically present. His xGA/60 is 2nd best on the team, and that’s because of his hockey smarts and responsible play. He also keeps his opponents honest as the number two forward in delivering hits.
Offensively, you’d like to see more as Vlad grades out as a mediocre forward, from an xGF/60 perspective. Considering Namestnikov is 2nd on the team in individual expected goals, some of the offensive shortcomings are because of the folks around him.
He is a positive expected goals player with everything taken into account, meaning he’s bringing more to the ice than he is giving up. His skill level won’t help him become a Hart Trophy Candidate, but this team does not suffer when he is on the ice. For that, he grades well.
Frans Nielsen, F-
(21 GP, 1 G 4A, Points Per 60 1.13)
In typing “Nielsen isn’t expected to score goals,” I started to wonder what Nielsen does bring to the table. He is a negative Corsi forward, and his xGF% is 43.89. He’s at the bottom four for forward-shot-percentage, individual Corsi-For-per-60, and individual-expected-goals-per-60.
He also doesn’t bring a noticeable physical element to the ice, with only nine blocked shots and 20 hits.
We can all agree that this is a player who should not be taking ice-time away from some of the younger prospects. And we can’t forget that salary cap hit either. This was an easy grade here.
Michael Rasmussen, D
(20 GP, 3A, Points Per 60 .1.18)
I would not have been able to confirm for you, before putting this together, that Michael Rasmussen had more games played than Tyler Bertuzzi.
I couldn’t give him an incomplete, so this is going to look bad.
Rasmussen has not faired well. From an individual perspective, Rasmussen can at least say his individual Corsi attempts per 60 are better than Glendening, Nielsen, Brome, and Filppula. He’s also 8th on the team in personal expected goals per 60. They aren’t incredible numbers because they far below league averages, but he’s not the worst forward on the team from a standalone, nitpicky numbers crunch.
Now, if you judge him based on on-ice analytics, Ras has the worst xGF% and CF%. Meaning he is hurting this team when he is on the ice.
The one shining light is that Ras leads the team in hits per 60. He’s a big boy and will throw that weight around to make space. Considering it was tough to find something positive, the D might be too generous.
Bobby Ryan, B+
(27 GP, 6 G 7A, Points per 60 1.82)
For everyone who has played a (mostly) entire season (not including Bert, Svech, or Givani), Bobby Ryan is 4th on the team in points per 60. He cost the Red Wings $1 Million, and he will most assuredly fetch another draft pick for the Wings to play around with come July.
For as in-depth as I went for Nielsen and Rasmussen, it doesn’t feel necessary for a guy who has easily been one of our most consistent forwards (not to say he hasn’t struggled like everyone else). It would be silly for anyone not to see why Bobby gets a ‘B+.’ Financial Efficiency is the key at such a reasonable salary.
Ryan has had defensive lapses, but some of that has been due to his offensive counterparts taking shifts and full games off. Also, being on the first line means he has the most demanding defensive responsibilities at times.
Don’t forget, among forwards who have played (mostly) an entire season; Bobby is also last in GA/60. Some of this is due to the goaltending and defense around him, but he’s not perfect. He’s still allowing more goals while on the ice than what he is producing. But again…financial efficiency and a draft pick.
Givani Smith, Inc
(8 GP, 1 G 3A, Points per 60 3.03)
So nine games are where I’m drawing the line, I guess.
Givani Smith did very well in replacing Tyler Bertuzzi and still sits second on the team (when removing time on ice and games played filters) in points per 60.
Smith also has a positive GF% and a (just under) even xGF%. He found himself near the bottom of all forwards regarding possession, but it’s unfortunate that with this team’s struggles, there wasn’t room for someone with his size and ability to get more opportunities. Hopefully, he returns down the road.
Evgeny Svechnikov, Inc
(4 GP, 2 G 2 A, Points Per 60 5.29)
Incredible start for Evgeny Svechnikov. I do hope we get to see more of him. It’s the simple case of knowing his small sample size could have resulted in 0 points and negative possession numbers, but it didn’t. Even if he had struggled, he should be on this roster over four names, off the top of my head.
Geno led the team in points-per-60 and played with Filppula and Nielsen. What more can you say? You did good, kid.
Filip Zadina, B
(21 GP, 3 G 8A, Points per 60 of 1.96)
Mantha a C+ and Zadina a B??? I know! Crazy, right? Well, that’s what happens when one guy is earning $5.7 Million, and the other is just under $900 K.
For what we should eventually expect from Zadina, the first quarter of the season didn’t get me excited. However, you can see he is getting better every week. And while he struggled for nearly the entire month of February (like the rest of the team), he is on a point-per-game pace in his last seven games (2G, 5A).
Zadina has also been successful in adding a more physical side to his game. It’s something that the eyeball test can ‘closely measure’ (I jest) as winning puck battles and being willing to get dirty in the corners. As suggested by the GM, Steve Yzerman, he knows that goals and assists will come for the likes of Zadina, but he’d prefer to see improvements like the one just mentioned to help create a more well-rounded forward for the future.
If the Red Wings are going to be competitive in the future, Zadina’s last seven-games have to represent the offense we’re going to get out of him. But for now, while Zadina is still yet to play an entire season, this is certainly good to see, and his growth is fun to watch.
Red Wings Defensemen Midseason Grades
Alex Biega, Inc
(3 GP, 0 Everything)
Here’s a nice easy one. Only three games played, but Alex Biega’s ice-time is STILL a little on the high side (see what I did there). He’s not pivotal, no one has ever pretended he would be, and he’s playing at that level. Aaaaand…moving on.
Danny Dekeyser, C-
(19 GP, 1 G 2 A, Points Per 60 .55)
Now that I’m on the second defensemen, I realize these might not need as much analysis as the forwards. Danny Dekeyser is coming off a season-ending injury, but our depth still made him an opening night lock.
The earlier struggles (from rust, having not played for about 14 months) resulted in being a healthy scratch a couple of times. 2021 is his second-worst season for Corsi and possession and his third-worst season for expected goals.
From a Dekeyser-Perspective, it could be better, but he is the second-best defenseman on the team for expected goals percentage. So while most of our defenseman give up more offense than they create, he’s at least doing less of it. He’s even doing better than the league average of xGA per 60 of 2.17 at 2.08.
A ‘C-’ probably means something entirely different for the Tampa Bay Lightning, but for a guy who had an excessive time away from the ice, he’s been serviceable.
Christian Djoos, D+
(24 GP, 2G 4A, Points Per 60 .95)
Christian Djoos is 2nd on the team in points per 60 for defensemen. That would mean a lot more to me if his expected-goals-against weren’t 2nd worst. That puts him 3rd on the team for expected goals for percentage (comparing the expected-goals he should give up with the expected-goals he should be bringing to the ice).
Against the rest of the league, Djoos falls below average for the expected-goals-for and expected-goals-against. For a team that depends on 5-on-5 hockey, there isn’t a single space that Djoos is dominant. However, Djoos has been successful on the power-play for the Red Wings. Netting the first power-play goal in 40 tries for Detroit.
Surprisingly, he hasn’t done more than that, considering he passes the eyeball test for setting up good scoring chances on the power play. But he only has 2 points on the power play this season. So even from that perspective, he’s not making a clear difference.
Djoos brought us a good memory this year, but he’s certainly not going to be one of the defensemen we should be weeping over when Troy Stetcher returns, and someone needs to be taken out.
Filip Hronek C+
(28 GP, 14A, Points per 60 1.27)
Filip Hronek was the cool and trendy defenseman to talk about when it came to picking a surprisingly bad performance earlier in the season. Most people forgot to mention that he would more than likely turn it around and be surrounded by hot garbage.
Since that time, Hronek has elevated his play and is nearly a positive possession defenseman (meaning over 50% CorsiFor%). His points per 60 are also well over the league average for defensemen (.92).
Like Christian Djoos, Hronek is on the wrong side of expected goals for any way you crack it. He is giving up more expected-goals than he is bringing to the ice, he is below the league average for xGF and xGA, and he’s 4th on the team when compared to all defensemen (not terrible, but Hronek does accumulate the most minutes meaning he is our #1 defenseman).
Hronek is providing the most power-play results from the defense, with five assists. But we all know the power play has had its struggles this year, so when this team is ready to make a run for the cup, it’s safe to say Hronek might not be the guy you’re trusting to quarterback the 1st unit.
Filip Hronek is a good defenseman. He will undoubtedly produce better when this team isn’t constantly dealing with COVID, injuries, and the bottom-of-the-barrel talent pool. But if we’re grading performance through the season, I have to give him a C+.
Jonathan Merrill, C+
(22 GP, 4A, Points Per 60 .53)
Jonathan Merrill is a defensive defenseman who is doing his job. Merrill is 2nd on the team in expected-goals-against-per-60 and is positioned well enough to help his goaltenders secure a 93% save percentage when he is on the ice. Jon is also eclipsing the top half of the league (67th out of 227 defensemen with 100+ minutes) with an xGA per 60 of 1.97.
When he has the puck, the chances aren’t there. Merrill is also a turnover machine with 15 giveaways and only two takeaways.
As pointed out before, the expectations for Merrill were along the lines of a responsible, defensive-defenseman. Expecting too much offense would be silly, and he also has only been in the penalty box three times this season.
Merrill can do his job, and that’s why you bring this guy onto a team. A responsible defensive defenseman is turning outnumbers a bit above expected. C+ well earned.
Patrik Nemeth, D
(27 GP, 2G 2 A, Points per 60 .46)
I don’t know what it is, but I always expect Patrik Nemeth to track better from an advanced analytics perspective. He looks like he performs soundly, but he most certainly isn’t providing or bringing offense to the table for Detroit.
Nemeth is the worst defenseman on the team when it comes to expected goals. He’s also a negative possession defenseman. You might be thinking to yourself (like how we just measured Merrill) that Nemeth is a defensive defenseman. So maybe he’s got some plusses in other areas? He doesn’t.
Nemeth is the worst defenseman at expected-goals-against-per-60 while simultaneously fighting his way to the roster's bottom for expected-goals-for.
Nemeth is a guy who I think gets a free pass because he isn’t killing the salary. While we have forgiven that earlier in these grades, Nemeth isn’t doing any singular item particularly well. So there isn’t that key-element we can point to that should keep him on the ice.
Nemeth is the kind of player Yzerman was referring to when referencing ‘icing-a-team’ earlier this year. He can show up to the arena and put on a jersey. There isn’t much else you’re going to get out of Patrik besides that.
Marc Staal, D
(28 GP, 2G 2A, Points -Per-60 .46)
Marc Staal is on a list of ‘notable players on the trade block’ from national pundits. Not that I don’t want the Red Wings to land a draft pick for Staal at the deadline, I just can’t believe it would happen.
His points-per-60 are second-worst on the team, and his expected goals are far below league average for a defenseman.
However, all of this looks different when Staal is paired with Troy Stetcher.
His defensive pair partner for most of the season, till Stetcher went down, the two were a force on 5-on-5 hockey. If there is hope to fetching a considerable draft for Marc Staal, it’ll depend on getting those two back together. Positive possession and expected goals numbers put this pairing at the top half of the league. And at a ‘Per-60’ relation, Stetcher and Staal were the most productive pairing offensively for ‘actual’ and ‘expected’ goals.
As soon as Stetcher is ready to come back, throw these two together because they were magic and help me increase Staal’s F to a D.
Now…who is next?
Troy Stecher, B+
(19 GP, 1G 4A, Points-Per-60 .84)
Troy Stecher is a part of 4 of the ten defensive pairings on this team that have a positive expected-goal-percentage. It’s probably worth mentioning that Blashill, COVID, and injuries helped create 27 different line pairings.
But that’s not why we’re here!
Stecher has arguably been the best d-man on this team, not only because of his positive results but who he has helped improve because of his efforts. Namely Dekeyser, Merrill, and Marc Staal.
Looking at Stecher’s individual-results, we know he could get Marc Staal scoring earlier in the year, but that’s not what blows my socks off. Troy Stecher’s expected-goals-against-per-60 is ranked 6th in the league (among all defensemen with at least 100 minutes of ice-time). That puts him in the same breath as Cale Makar!
As the best defensive defenseman on the team (that’s right, I said it), Stetcher gets my highest grade. And I’d be happy with that B+ even if we were paying him a million over the $1.7 M salary he’s collecting now, but of course, we aren’t.
Stecher is a dream find for Yzerman, and I hope Troy turns out to be one of our six defensemen helping this team inch closer and closer to .500 over the next couple of years.
Red Wings Midseason Grades Goaltenders
Jonathan Bernier, B
(13 GP, .910 SV%, 3.02 GAA)
A couple of weeks ago, Jonathan Bernier was at the top of the league when measuring Actual vs. Expected differential (per 60). We estimated this on March 11th, and Bernier currently sits at 29th in the NHL. We know this isn’t the best team in front of Bernier, but the expected goals stat is considering that.
I fully expected this to be a more straightforward player to grade out, but one of the essential analytics we have for goaltenders makes the argument that he’s not doing so great. The only idea I can make for his goal differential taking such a hard fall is the teams he’s been playing recently and the average shot distance being closer to the net than two-thirds of all goaltenders.
But I’m going to stop trying to figure out a way Bernier’s eye-test does so much better than the analytics and just enjoy his .910 save percentage. For the Red Wings, they could do better than Bernier, but he is enough for us right now.
Thomas Greiss, D-
(17 GP, .883 SV%, 3.41 GAA)
Thomas Greiss was getting a free pass from me because his workload increased while Jonathan Bernier was out of the lineup for a couple of weeks.
But looking back, it wasn’t that overwhelming of a task. And comparing Thomas’s results with more rest, he hasn’t stepped it up.
Greiss is now trending into Jimmy Howard numbers from last season, and that is not good. Considering Bernier is on the trade block, Wings fans should be worried.
Why be scared? His Expected over Allowed differential is the 3rd worst in the league (1st if you want to compare ONLY starting goaltenders). His average shot distance is in the top half of the NHL (meaning he’s facing easier shots to defend). The shot distance could argue the Wings are playing better in front of Greiss than in front of Bernier (which is a common defense of Greiss and his play).
Greiss has not turned out to be an excellent pickup for Detroit, and it’ll be a struggle for him to find his next role after his time with the Red Wings. Still…he is playing on the worst team in the league, so it can’t all be his fault. Certainly not! So he gets a D- instead of an ‘F.’
Red Wings Team Grade, D
This section could be an opportunity to rail into this team, but I won’t. It was going to be a rough couple of years as the Yzerplan got started. This is the Red Wings meeting expectations.
Let’s also not forget how long it can take to build a winner and how few Red Wing’s top prospects are playing.
So, the rest of this season won’t be fun to watch. Still, we have seen small improvements here and there, so I can’t just give them an F. After all, I’ve used the salary thing a couple of times to boost player grades. Let’s not forget that the Red Wings have one of the lowest salaries in the league. It’s only going to get smaller if some of our players get traded away at the deadline. So… a small salary equals small expectations? For now, the answer is yes.
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