Can the Red Wings Win 2-in-a-Row vs Florida Panthers?
The Red Wings pulled off a pretty good looking 4-1 win against the Florida Panthers on the Super Sunday matinee game. In what we termed as “breaking analytics” for the win, in our last episode of Red Wings Rant, the Red Wings lost the possession battle and were out-chanced in the 1st and 2nd periods, but managed to outscore the Panthers by 3 goals.
The Red Wings may have broken the analytical interpretation of what it takes to find a win, they surely looked better than they have through a majority of the season and got the victory one might argue, they earned in their second game against the Tampa Bay Lightning.
How did the Red Wings Win Game One?
The key for the 3 goal win was one of Thomas Greiss’ more impressive games of the season. Greiss hasn’t been void of above-average play either. He more or less has been the victim of the team in front of him. So much so, that despite some other stellar performances this season, this was actually his first victory of the season.
For goaltenders with at least 225 minutes played (in this crazy COVID-19 riddled season, I’m defining that as a starting goaltender), Greiss has the 3rd best SV% ( .937%) and 4th best GAA (1.78 GAA) in 5-on-5 situations.
Unlike the 5-on-5 situations, Greiss has a save percentage of .809% on the penalty kill. It’s not completely out of the ordinary to see a drop in save percentage, but the Red Wings Penalty Kill is one of the worst in the league.
Luckily for the Red Wings, the refs swallowed their whistles, resulting in only one shorthanded situation for Detroit. The Panthers even failed to register a shot on net. The Red Wings might not be so lucky in game number two, but as a team (and goaltender in Greiss) that thrives in 5-on-5 situations, they’ll happily take a game like this 40 more times.
Givani Smith and Secondary Scoring
Since we already touched on the fact that the Red Wings beat some of the advanced analytics in finding a victory, it’s as good a time as any to mention that Givani Smith played a great game, but it can’t be expected to continue at that pace.
Right?!
In Givani Smith’s six games, his on-ice tenacity has helped the Red Wings find more net-front opportunities and more High Danger Chances. It’s also worth mentioning that with only 59 minutes of 5-on-5 ice time compared to 80 minutes for Filip Zadina, he’s wracked up more individual expected goals and individual High Danger Chances.
We aren’t making the argument that one is better than the other, but there’s at least enough positive results from his 6 games played that we can get a teensy bit excited about what Givani Smith can bring to a team looking to be more competitive on the first line as well as line four.
Once this team is looking to fill out a playoff-contending 18 man roster, Givani Smith brings the ferocity and finishing touch to present a formidable bottom six.
Anthony Mantha still out?
It was the only thing anyone wanted to talk about after the Red Wings were able to hand the Florida Panthers their first regulation loss of the season. Anthony Mantha was a healthy scratch.
The main point of contention in the discussion was if ‘laziness’ was a part of the equation. From what you can easily pull from the Red Wings’ analytics is Mantha’s 4th place ranking on the team in individual expected goals and 2nd place ranking in on-ice expected goals for percentage. Whether you want to say those numbers should be higher or not, he’s performed well enough to be a top-six forward and certainly a top-line forward, regardless of the line he’s placed on. Long story short, Mantha’s issues aren’t laziness.
Consistency? Can be argued. Finish? You’d certainly like to see more of it considering the expectations associated with salary. But lazy? Not from my perspective.
Mantha has made the claim himself in post-game interviews that he needs to step up his play, so I’m going to take him at his word and hope that with the help of his coach, they’ll discover what it takes for him to find himself.
Now, the Red Wings won the last game with him, but he certainly hasn’t been the reason why we lose.
I do hope that the likes of Givani Smith continue to get a shot because you’d like to think Smith has done enough to earn a spot on this team. But I’d rather see Mantha inserted back into the lineup, while Frans Nielsen, Sam Gagner, or Adam Erne were the next individuals to be a healthy scratch.
Can the Red Wings win Two in a Row?
Absolutely they can win two in a row. Statistically, I find it highly unlikely.
The Red Wings did a great job of playing a responsible game against the Panthers on Sunday, but I don’t know if their luck will continue in regards to removing Special Teams from the equation.
If the whistles are still a non-factor, the Red Wings will have a great shot of keeping this game close up until the final seconds of this one.
I think the Red Wings have done enough all season to say that their 5-on-5 play is NHL worthy. But, again, special teams (whether there are a ton of penalties or very few) will be the biggest factor.
From the perspective of lineups, it will be very interesting to see if Mantha is put back in, especially considering the losses were never his fault. We do know that Mathias Brome and Givani Smith are back off the Taxi Squad, so we’ll have to keep an eye out till game time to see what else happens.
Tonight's Venue: BB&T Center
DET All-Time Record vs FLA at the venue: 14-7-3
DET Record: 3-8-2
CBJ Record: 6-1-2
Season Series: 1-1-1
Goaltender DET: (Update Later)
Goaltender FLA: (Update Later)
DraftKings Odds:
DET Moneyline +180, Puckline +1.5 (-137)
FLA Moneyline -220, Puckline -1.5 (+115)
Players to watch (DET): F. Zadina, V. Namestnikov, G. Smith
Players to watch (FLA): A. Barkov, A. Ekblad, S. Bobrovsky
Jesse's Prediction: 3-2 Red Wings
Matt's Prediction: 3-2 Red Wings
Mike's Prediction:
