Nashville for Dummies and Game Prediction
Given the odd ending to the 2019/2020 NHL season, and the even odder playoffs that followed in the middle of the summer, it shouldn’t come as much of a surprise to many NHL fans across the globe that the 2020/2021 season will have its own complications and abnormalities.
A shortened season, only 56 games, pales in comparison on a scale of abnormality when compared to the new divisions that will dictate opponents and playoff chances for this season only. Most NHL executives remain optimistic that the 2021/2022 NHL season should feature a return to almost entirely normal.
In the meantime, new divisions mean new opponents. It wasn’t always the way, but fans have gotten used to the idea of their favorite team facing off against each team in the league on at least two occasions, with inner-conference and inner-division opponents and rivals being more frequent opponents.
This year, however, until teams make it relatively deep into the playoffs, teams will only face the other teams within their division. Being part of the Central division, Detroit will be facing off against the other seven teams (Carolina Hurricanes, Chicago Blackhawks, Columbus Blue Jackets, Dallas Stars, Florida Panthers, Nashville Predators, Tampa Bay Lightning) eight times each throughout the season, with the top four teams in the Division at season’s end given a playoff berth.
Of the seven other teams in the division, only Florida and Tampa Bay join the Red Wings as familiar opponents from the Atlantic Division. The division that Detroit has called home since the 2013/2014 NHL season. With so many new rivals, what does each new Divisional Rival have in store for Detroit?
Let’s take a deeper look in this brief series, Central Opponents for Dummies, continuing with Detroit’s only remaining opponent they have yet o face in the 2021 season: The Nashville Predators.
2021 Nashville Predators vs Detroit Red Wings
Remember when the Predators were a really good team?
It's only been about 4 years since the Predators ran all the way to the Stanley Cup Finals, losing to the Pittsburgh Penguins. It felt like it was out of nowhere back then. A team that no one really thought much of was suddenly a true contender with a loud, compassionate fan base. Bridgestone Arena rang out in unified chants, taunting enemy goalies and cheering their team all the way.
Just as soon as that window opened for the Predators, it seems to have closed. They lost in the second round of the playoffs the following season. The year after that, a first-round exit.
Last season saw the Predators lose to the Arizona Coyotes in the qualifying round. So far this year, the Predators don't seem to be much of a factor in the Central Division's playoff chase. The window for Nashville to win the Stanley Cup seems to have opened and closed in the blink of an eye.
Nashville currently sits 7th in the Central Division, ahead of only Detroit. The two teams are very comparable with a slight edge towards Nashville so far throughout the season.
In terms of offensive production, the Predators have a Goals-for per game played (GF/GP) average of 2.31, a considerable amount higher than Detroit’s league-worst 1.93. While almost half-goal higher per game than Detroit, 2.31 GF/GP is still only good for 27th in the league.
Forward Comparisons
Nashville’s forward group is notoriously thin in spite of their defense, which was once considered the best in the league. Even after the addition of Matt Duchene, scoring woes have consistently pursued the Predators in every game.
Filip Forsberg sits atop the Predators scoring sheet with 11 points through 13 games, 4 points ahead of second-place Mikael Granlund’s 7 points. Matt Duchene, who was once considered one of the premier forwards in the NHL, hasn’t been able to produce much in his current contract, registering only 42 points through 66 contests last season, and only 2 goals and 4 assists through the first 13 games of this current season.
Certainly not worth the $8M price-tag that the Predators gave to Duchene, and certainly not up to par with his former superstar status.
Defense Comparisons
Nashville’s defense, once considered a model for the rest of the league and the dominant factor of the team’s build, has not been performing up to par to start the year. Nashville ranks 26th in the league in Goals-Against per Games Played (GA/GP) with an astounding 3.54, which is actually worse than Detroit’s painful 3.29 GA/GP average.
Even the defending James Norris Memorial Trophy winner, Roman Josi, has had his struggles to start the season on Nashville’s defense. Josi has 2 goals and 6 points to start the season but has registered a +/- of -4 so far. He’s second on the team in blocks with 25.
Since getting trounced by the Lightning 5-1, the Red Wings have calmed the storm of goals against, resulting in a 2.00 Goals Against in the last 3 games. The Red Wings 5-on-5 play is, from a defensive perspective, quite respectable. They rank 7th in the league in xGA/60.
The Red Wings don’t have the scoring touch on defense, which nets a Norris trophy candidate. But they do have the ability to snuff out their opponents’ efforts to show off.
Goalie Comparisons
In net, Pekka Rinne’s prime seems to have shut just as quickly as Nashville’s contending window. Rinne ranks 21st in the league with a save percentage of 0.909% of goalies who have played at least 5 games so far. His Goals Against Average of 2.65 is good for 22nd in the league. Both numbers, as well as Rinne’s decline, were expected.
His performance last year was the final warning for the Predators to get things together, hence why it was no surprise when they drafted goaltender Yaroslav Askarov in the first round.
The real issue is the very sudden fall-off of the heir-apparent for Nashville’s starting goaltender role, Juuse Saros. Saro has begun the season with abysmal stats. His 0.881 S% is good for 41st in the league with the same requirement of at least 5 games played.
His GAA, 3.68, is good for 38th in the league. Not promising numbers for the man who is supposed to keep pucks out of the net for Nashville as Rinne’s role is reduced until he ultimately retires, likely at the end of his current contract.
Special Teams Comparisons
Special teams have been a significant problem for Detroit so far this season, but they haven’t really been all that great of strength for the Predators, either. Detroit’s power play ranks 30th in the league at 9.3%. Nashville’s power play ranks only 22nd in the league with 14.3%. Similarly, Detroit’s penalty kill has left a lot to be desired, with a measly 70% penalty-kill success rate.
Nashville’s penalty kill is a league-worst 62.8%. The Predators present the only team in the Division who, on paper, should be at a disadvantage in special teams against Detroit, and offer the Red Wings a unique possibility to have significant special teams success that could prove to be a turning point in sustained productivity from the power play and penalty kill alike.
Red Wings vs Predators History
The Predators’ rise into success came with a significant fall. Unlike the Wings, the Predators have only just begun their rebuild, and are likely to get even worse than how they currently are. The Wings still hold a dominant command over the all-time record between teams, going 59-28-12 since the Predators joined the league in 1998.
Detroit Red WIngs vs Nashville Predators 2-11-2021
Tonight's Venue: Bridgestone Arena
DET All-Time Record vs NSH at the venue: 26-18-5
DET Record: 3-9-2 (8th in Central)
NSH Record: 5-8-0 (7th in Central)
Season Series: 0-0-0
Goaltender DET: T. Greiss
(11 GP, 3-7-0, 0.878% S%, 3.64 GA0A vs NSH)
Goaltender NSH: P. Rinne
(30 GP, 13-12-5, 0.920% S%, 2.59 GAA vs DET)
DET Moneyline +1.5 (-175) , Puckline +145
NSH Moneyline -1.5 (+145) , Puckline -175
Players to watch (DET) : F. Zadina, T. Greiss, D. Larkin
Players to watch (NSH) : F. Forsberg, R. Josi, R. Grimaldi
Jesse's Prediction: 4-3 Red Wings
Matt's Prediction: 3-1 Red Wings
Mike's Prediction:
