Dallas Stars for Dummies and Game Predictions
Given the odd ending to the 2019/2020 NHL season, and the even odder playoffs that followed in the middle of the summer, it shouldn’t come as much of a surprise to many NHL fans across the globe that the 2020/2021 season will have its own complications and abnormalities.
A shortened season, only 56 games, pales in comparison on a scale of abnormality when compared to the new divisions that will dictate opponents and playoff chances for this season only. Most NHL executives remain optimistic that the 2021/2022 NHL season should feature a return to almost entirely normal.
In the meantime, new divisions mean new opponents. It wasn’t always the way, but fans have gotten used to the idea of their favorite team facing off against each team in the league on at least two occasions, with inner-conference and inner-division opponents and rivals being more frequent opponents.
This year, however, until teams make it relatively deep into the playoffs, teams will only face the other teams within their division. Being part of the Central division, Detroit will be facing off against the other seven teams (Carolina Hurricanes, Chicago Blackhawks, Columbus Blue Jackets, Dallas, Florida, Nashville, Tampa Bay) eight times each throughout the season, with the top four teams in the Division at season’s end given a playoff berth.
Of the seven other teams in the division, only Florida and Tampa Bay join the Red Wings as familiar opponents from the Atlantic Division. The division that Detroit has called home since the 2013/2014 NHL season. With so many new rivals, what does each new Divisional Rival have in store for Detroit?
Let’s take a deeper look at Central Opponents by continuing with Detroit’s fourth opponent of the 2021 season: The Dallas Stars
2021 Dallas Stars vs Detroit Red Wings
Let’s not sugar coat it, Red Wings fans. We are going up against the Stanley Cup runner up from last year and the former Western Conference Champion, the Dallas Stars. This is not going to be easy.
The Red Wings did steal a win from the Stars last season, thanks to a 4 goal performance from Anthony Mantha. But the Stars made some major changes during the season that brought out a high functioning defensive scheme that created the Western Conference Champions we know them as, now.
The biggest change happened when Rick Bowness took over Dallas’ coaching position late in 2019 after Jim Montgomery had an undisclosed incident with the team last season. Bowness brought in a different attitude with him, as well as a defensive style of play that helped the team finish 3rd in the Central and finish 2nd in goals against (across the entire NHL).
Bowness’s style of coaching was perfect for playoff success and their platform helped establish household names like Miro Heiskanen and Roope Hintz as young leaders to usher in the next generation of hockey’s elite.
Despite the successful season last year, the Stars were not on the top of minds when it came to picking Stanley Cup favorites. Regardless of hockey heads and pundits, the Stars are off to a great start. After being forced to cancel games due to COVID-19, the Stars opened their season with a 7-0 victory and a 3-2 victory, both over the Nashville Predators.
The leaders of the Stars will have to carry a heavier load this season after Tyler Seguin played the entirety of the 2020 Stanley Cup Playoffs with an injury-riddled leg. This injury is forcing him out of the start of the 2021 season, so the biggest question for Dallas was how to replace a top-line center.
The Stars will also be without Ben Bishop and Jamie Benn is questionable for the series.
Considering the Stars are through their first big bout with COVID-19, for this season, they stand to hold quite the advantage over a Red Wings team that is still struggling to get through there’s. So let’s take a look at who is going to take the ice tonight.
Defense Comparisons
Two games into the season, the Dallas Stars are already seeing production from their…stars…on defense: John Lingberg (4A) and Miro Heiskanen (1A). Both individuals score out as positive Game Score (Game Score, being the model and advanced stat created by Dom Luszczyszyn) and would result in being top 1st pairing D. That is despite them being place on separate D-pairings, to help spread the wealth.
This is because of the less than elite production of Jamie Oleksiak and Esa Lindell (again, based on Game Score).
Regardless, all 6 defensemen on the Stars (having not mentioned Andrej Sekera and Taylor Fedun yet) all measure out to provide more wins and production than their counterparts on the opposing team.
Letting analytics take a back seat, the Stars are a team that will stifle your offensive chances from the outset and have already proved they’re in fighting shape after two games. With the Red Wings also hoping to limit chances (to a much lesser rate of success), the Stars won’t have to work too hard to reproduce the 1 goal against they allowed the last time these two teams met.
But it’s not just the defense that is going to give the Red Wings trouble when it comes to scoring goals.
Goalies Comparisons
The Red Wings came into the Chicago series hoping to have the advantage in net and very quickly realized that a lot of other things have to go right to give your goaltender the best chance to succeed. Even if those things were going to go right (no quarantined players and a full roster), I’d still have to give the edge to Anton Khudobin.
Khudobin is currently posting a .961 SV% (through 2 games) and 1.00 GAA. On top of that, Dobby (as he is so lovingly referred to) has only allowed 1 High Danger Scoring Chance to get past him, out of 13 (a 92.3% HDSV%.
For comparison's sake, the Red Wings have allowed 8 HDGA, at a near league average of 80% saved. Those results are more or less expected from a normal goaltender. After all, we are talking about a scoring chance that has the probability of conversion.
But the high rate of save percentage, posted by Anton, presents evidence that the tenacious style of play that allows the Star to win with defense, doesn’t only depend on the 6-blue-liners. The backstop is certainly in the conversation for Elite, as well.
Forward Comparisons
Detroit has a fair amount of issues on the offensive end. Bobby Ryan's emergence as his former goal-scoring self has served the Wings well so far, but he's going to need support. Dylan Larkin is also proving to be a one-man wrecking crew when needed, but he too will not be enough.
Unfortunately, the previously mentioned COVID-19 absences should continue to be an issue for the foreseeable future. The likes of Filip Zadina, Robby Fabbri, Sam Gagne, Adam Erne, and Darren Helm are all still documented as a part of the quarantine list.
This doesn’t only hurt the team from a depth standpoint, but even Anthony Mantha found it tough to find the motivation to skate hard against the laughable Blackhawks. This resulted in his benching, in the third period and of course, a litany of questions from the fan base.
The questions on offense don’t end there for the Red Wings, which makes it time to turn our attention to 7 points in 2 games center leading the Dallas Stars, Joe Pavelski. Of all the teams in the Central Division, Pavelski’s best shooting percentage over his career is against the Red Wings, at 17.7%.
But the scoring doesn’t end there, as the previously mentioned Roope Hintz is also off to a hot start, with 1 goal and 4 assists in the two games against the Predators. Hintz also had 3 goals and 1 assist in the two games these teams faced off last season.
While the Stars will miss Tyler Seguin over the course of the season, they may not miss him much tonight. While COVID-19 continues to plague the Red Wing’s roster, the likes of Pavelski and Hintz will find success, along with Alexander Radulov, Jamie Benn, and Denis Gurianov.
Detroit Red Wings vs Dallas Stars History
As mentioned, the Red Wings and Star split their series, last season. While much of the Red Wings early-season victory could be attributed to Anthony Mantha’s stand-out play, the second game wasn’t much to glean from as everyone seemed to struggle. However, both games saw a fairly consistent output from the Stars’ offense and this should worry Wings fans.
The all-time series, between these two, is nearly a .500 affair. The Red Wings hold a slight edge with a record of 114-103-34-6. With eight games on the schedule, this could prove to be a good year for the Stars to play a considerable amount of catchup.
And while we used to be able to call them Western rivals in the late ’90s and early 2000s, the lone playoff series these two had against each other since (in 2008) wasn’t much to write home about. The Red Wings took the series (which felt easy, despite it going as long as it did) in 6 games.
I don’t see too much bad blood or extracurricular activity figuring into this early season matchup. Maybe later on?
Overall
It’s not looking good as long as COVID-19 has a strong grip on the Detroit Red Wings season. We saw what could happen to a severely shorthanded team like the Chicago Blackhawks, but now the Wings will face a rested, (somewhat) healthier Dallas Stars team.
The hope here is that some more practices with the rambunctious group of misfits (anyone plugging a COVID hole) will result in a more cohesive approach to Blashill’s style of limiting events. I just find it hard to see enough of a turnaround to actually beat the Stars. Without a 4 goal performance from one of the Red Wings’ forwards (maybe Bobby Ryan this time!) I don’t see the Wings winning either game.
Look for the Stars to win, but their own style of play could keep these games close, going into the 3rd.
Detroit vs Dallas
8:30 PM EST, Tonight's Venue: American Airlines Center
Detroit’s ALL-TIme Record at the American Airlines Center: 13-9-3-3
DET Record: 2-4-0
DAL Record: 2-0-0
Season Series: 0-0-0
Goaltender Matchup
Goaltender DET: T. Greiss (.918 SV%, 2.74 GAA)
Goaltender DAL: (.961 SV%, 1.00 GAA)
Players to watch (DET): A. Mantha, B. Ryan, D. Larkin
Players to watch (DAL): R. Hintz, J. Pavelski, A. Radulov
DET Puckline: +1.5 (-150), Moneyline: +175
DAL Puckline: -1.5 (+125), Moneyline: -205
Over/Under: 5
Jesse's Prediction: 5-2 DAL
Matt's Prediction: 4-2 DAL
Mike's Prediction:
