Detroit Red Wings' 2021 Season Expectations
Jesse Leister (@jcleist17 on twitter)
The NHL's 2021 season is practically upon us. Although things are going to be much different this year from Detroit's roster to the division they play in and beyond, there's finally hockey on the horizon.
And when hockey is on the horizon the same question always needs to be asked; What is a realistic expectation for our 2021 Detroit Red Wings?
The question that gets asked every single year as rosters are solidified and real games are less than a few weeks away is a bit more complicated this season. The normal 82 game campaign is shortened to only 56 games this time around. Divisions have been rearranged to promote less travel and a guaranteed absence of country border crossing during the regular season.
Detroit's normal division in the Atlantic has been disassembled, leaving Detroit with only 2 teams (Florida and Tampa) who remain in the same division. Detroit and Chicago will look to reignite their long-standing rivalry in what should be coined "The 2021 Basement Bowl".
Red Wings 2021 Outlook
Taking a look at things realistically, Detroit has undeniably improved their roster since last year. General Manager Steve "The Wizard" Yzerman took to free agency and responsibly plugged several holes that largely sank the ship for the Red Wings last season.
Additions to the team, including Namestnikov and Ryan, barely outweigh the subtractions in the form of a long time Red Wings Justin Abdelkader, Jonathan Ericsson, and Jimmy Howard.
Central Division Head-to-Head
Even with those additions (and subtractions), the Wings are a far cry from a legitimate playoff team. Due to the unusual circumstances and the new division, it's not exactly impossible for Detroit to make the playoffs. They're part of the 8 teams "Central Division", and to make the playoffs only require finishing in the top 4 of the new division.
Detroit's new division is relatively stacked, featuring both the Stanley Cup Champion Tampa Bay Lightning and the runner-up Dallas Stars. Of the 8 teams in the Division, only Detroit, Nashville, and Florida missed the playoffs last season with both the Predators and the Panthers participating in the qualifying round. Carolina, Chicago, and Columbus were all first-round exits after winning their respective qualifying rounds.
Chicago Blackhawks
It isn't totally far-fetched to believe Detroit could outperform Chicago, especially considering that Blackhawks Captain "Serious" Toews will miss the beginning of the season, if not the entire year, with an unknown medical condition. Although Chicago technically made the playoffs last season thanks to their victory over Edmonton in the qualifying series, it's hard to consider Chicago a playoff team at the moment, even with Toews.
The Blackhawks recently went the way of the Rangers, submitting a letter to their fans indicating their intent to rebuild. Chicago and Detroit will have a chance to reignite their long-standing rivalry with both teams outside of the realistic playoff scene, but trending in different directions.
Chicago will likely have some offensive issues without captain Toews as a skilled, reliable center. Even with Patrick Kane highlighting the forward group for the Blackhawks, Detroit's improvements featuring Bobby Ryan and Vladislav Namestnikov, along with a hopefully fully healthy Anthony Mantha and determined Tyler Bertuzzi, give the Wings a slight edge in the offense department.
The defense could still go to Chicago on most nights. Detroit made a few significant moves over the off-season to improve the defensive end but the Hawks still have a few aging, but respectable, names on the back end.
Goaltending is an easy win for Detroit. Both Bernier and Greiss are better goalies than anything Chicago has to offer, and I truly feel sorry for both Subban and Delia for the Howard-esque shelling they're going to take in the new division.
Season Series Prediction: 5-1-2
Florida Panthers
After Chicago, the only team that Detroit could likely outperform over the course of the 56 game season is Florida, who lost in the qualifying round to the Islanders last season and, like Nashville, therefore technically missed the playoffs. While the Panthers had some changes made over the off-season, they didn't have near the same roster turnover as Detroit and could make for a fairly even opponent for the Red Wings over the course of the year.
Florida is a team long stuck in mediocrity with fans desperate for change that is slowly progressing. A strong rebound from a mediocre 2019/2020 campaign from former all-star goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky is all it might take for Florida to get the better of Detroit more often than not.
In terms of offense, Florida has a slight edge unless Bobby Ryan can truly return to form. Detroit's top forwards in Mantha, Bertuzzi, and Larkin are formidable but Florida's forward unit is stronger and deeper with the addition of Hornqvist.
Comparing the two defenses will rely a lot on how well guys like Merill and Stecher can adapt to their new surroundings. DeKeyser missed almost the entire season last year, leaving Hronek practically by himself. While Detroit fans are thrilled with Hronek and the progress he's made, Hronek would likely appreciate the help on the back end.
If Stecher, Merill, and by extension Staal adjust well to Detroit, the Wings should have an advantage in terms of defense. Especially when the highly touted German Demolition Machine returns from the SHL.
Goaltending is a big question when comparing the two teams. If Bobrovsky cannot return to the form he had in Columbus, the combination of Greiss and Bernier give Detroit the advantage. If he can get his form back, however, Bobrovsky is a legitimate Vezina candidate when his game is on, and Detroit has nothing to compete with that.
Season Series Prediction: 3-4-1
Tampa Bay Lightning
The Stanley Cup Champion Tampa Bay Lightning are the next on the agenda, and even without prolific forward Nikita Kucherov, will likely get the best of Detroit for the majority of their meetings.
The Lightning remains mostly unchanged from their cup-winning roster format. Even without star forward Kucherov, the Lightning (on paper) sport a much better roster than the Wings and likely will win the majority of contests between the two clubs. They managed to win the Stanley Cup without captain and superstar forward Steven Stamkos, so it's likely they can make short work of the Wings on most nights even without Kucherov.
Offensively, it's hard to imagine Tampa not winning in that category. Kucherov, Point, and Stamkos are some of the NHL's best.
On the back end, again, Tampa wins relatively easily. They lost Shattenkirk over the off-season but are still led by the best defensemen in the league, Victor Hedman.
Goaltending, stop it. Tampa also has one of the best goaltenders in the league in Andrei Vasilevskiy. Greiss and Bernier, with all due respect, are not near the young Russian's level.
Season Series Prediction: 2-5-1
Dallas Stars
The Stanley Cup runner-up Dallas Stars similarly featured minimal roster turnover. It's hard to imagine a team that showed so much determination and skill, using several different play styles to get past Colorado, Vegas, and Calgary would have much trouble dispatching a slowly rejuvenating Detroit club.
Anthony Mantha can't be called upon to score 4 goals for Detroit every single time they face off, so it's unlikely Detroit would be accumulating too many points against Dallas or finishing above them in the standings.
Dallas takes the cake in all three categories, similar to Tampa. That will change in a few short years, but for now, Dallas is clearly the better of the two teams.
Season Series Prediction: 3-5-0
Carolina Hurricanes
Carolina is in a position where Detroit hopes to be in a few years. They're a legitimate playoff team that just needs a bit more size and experience to make a long run. Once again, not a team that Detroit is likely to beat a majority of the team or finish ahead of in the standings.
Their biggest question mark is goaltending. Former Red Wing Petr Mrazek seems to be the starter once again heading into the new season. Wings fans know first hand that Mrazek is either ON and off. He either seems like the next coming of Dominik Hasek or is trying to make a glove save from the faceoff circle.
Carolina should take a pretty small victory margin in terms of offense. Aho, (A) Svechnikov, and Teravainen are all fantastic players, with Necas on the rise behind them. There's a tremendous amount of fun and character behind them, but not an overwhelmingly high amount of skill.
On defense, it's a pretty clear loss for Detroit. Carolina has one of the best defensive cores in the league which Detroit hopes to emulate with Moritz Seider leading the way in a few years, but they're not particularly close this year.
In net, it should be an advantage for Detroit. Bernier and Greiss are both quality netminders, albeit not at the top of the class. The aforementioned streakiness of Mrazek costs the Hurricanes more games than it wins them, and Reimer is a step down from Bernier of Greiss.
Season Series Prediction: 3-3-2
Columbus Blue Jackets
Columbus is another interesting case. If they had not matched up perfectly against Toronto, they likely would've missed the playoffs due to a qualifying round loss just like the Panthers did. Depending on how well their moves over the "summer" pan out, this could be another team that Detroit is a lot closer to now than last year, depending likewise on how players like Namestnikov, Ryan, Stecher, and Greiss pan out for them.
For the forwards, Columbus has a fair amount of firepower, but not any more so than Detroit. Werenski and Jones tend to be the difference makers offensively quite often from the back end. Depending on how the newcomers work out for Detroit on the front end, Detroit could actually take the cake for the offense.
Defensively, again, Detroit is going to come up short. Columbus sports a solid defensive core and Coach Tortorella has one of the hardest systems to beat.
In net, it's a no-contest advantage to Columbus.
Season Series Prediction: 2-4-2
Nashville Predators
The last remaining question mark is Nashville. The Predators were upset by the Arizona Coyotes in the qualifying round, epitomizing a rapid fall from grace that might leave the Predators on the outside looking in. It's hard to imagine a team featuring one of the best defensive cores in the league not making the playoffs, but their lack of sustainable offense continues to haunt them even after acquiring Matt Duchene.
In terms of offense, Detroit should take an edge here. If all of the newcomers for the Red Wings flake out, Nashville could easily take the lead again.
Defense, Detroit falls again. It's hard to fix a terrible defensive unit in just one off-season although General Manager Steve Yzerman did his best to do so.
In the net, Detroit should actually take advantage here. Saros played fairly well last season after Rinne's rapid fall from grace, but Bernier and Greiss should be able to outperform them.
Season Series Prediction: 4-2-2
The Wings playoff chances aren't very good. It's practically impossible for them to win more games than Tampa, Carolina, and Dallas. For Detroit to secure the fourth playoff spot in the Central Division would require the unlikely outperformance of Florida, Columbus, and Nashville, as well as winning the 2021 Basement Bowl against Chicago.
All it takes is a chance. It's been said before it's been said a million times. If Detroit did make the playoffs it would be a miracle. It would be a movie- worthy miracle if they could do any damage in the postseason.
So what is the realistic expectation for Detroit in 2021?
The realistic answer; Better, but still disappointing. Although scouting is going to be a bit of a mess outside of the already predicted first round, the 2021 draft is going to be another huge selection for Detroit.
One has to remember that the moves made by Yzerman over the off-season were simply plugs. For instance, Namestnikov is a definite upgrade over what Detroit was forced to use for their second center last season. But he's still not a long term solution.
Greiss is a definite upgrade over Howard, but he's not going to suddenly become an elite number one goaltender that can lead Detroit to the Cup. Although vastly improved with a few different names, Detroit's defensive core (which will lack Seider for the majority of the season) is not a defensive group that can win a Stanley Cup.
Detroit is going to do much better this season. There will be far fewer blowouts, far fewer shutouts, and far less utter disappointment. Even doubling their success rate from last season would leave Detroit just shy of the .500 mark, in a normal season is usually far too low to make the playoffs.
Season Prediction: 22-24-10
Better than last year's 17, especially considering the far shorter schedule, but still not enough to make the playoffs. Still a massive improvement over last season, and likely finishing second to last in the division to Chicago and perhaps ahead of Nashville or Florida.
Detroit will be much more entertaining this year and much more satisfying to the fan base. The most important watch of the season will be the 2021 Basement Bowl with Chicago, which I hereby predict Detroit winning.
#LGRW
