The Realistic Opening Night Lineup for 2021 Detroit Red Wings
Photo Credit: Adam Gretz, NBC Sports
By: Jesse L. (@jcleist17)
There is still dust to settle, with "t"s to be crossed and "i"s to be dotted, but every hockey mind in Detroit and beyond has their eyes focused on the future. Fans and pundits alike take to the task of projection. What does the future hold for Detroit? How is this season going to go? What's the lineup going to look like when the 2020/2021 NHL season goes underway hopefully sometime in January?
In spite of COVID-19 imposing limited cap space for teams and financial strain on the owners themselves, General Manager Steve Yzerman and the Detroit Red Wings have amassed themselves a glutton of players who could potentially make the opening night lineup. '
Even after buying out a long time Red Wing forward Justin Abdelkader, the Wings find themselves with 12 forwards and 7 defensemen on the roster according to CapFriendly. Notably not counted towards those totals at forward are, as of yet, unsigned restricted free agents Anthony Mantha and Dmytro Timashov.
As far as goaltenders are concerned, Jonathan Bernier and Thomas Greiss are of no surprise to anyone since Greiss signed, and will more than likely be the goalie tandem in Detroit for the entire season unless injuries occur between them.
With as many as 14 forwards potentially slated for Detroit, there have been musings amongst Red Wings' fans as to what implications there could be for the many prospects who seem to be right on the cusp of making the NHL.
Limited roster availability caused by a handful of free-agent acquisitions along with the only noteworthy exit at forward being Justin Abdelkader could have potentially sour consequences for the young men who played for the Grand Rapids Griffin's currently attempting to stake their claim to a spot within the Red Wings lineup.
Helene St. James, a well-respected writer for the Detroit Free Press, recently released her own article projecting Detroit's potential lineup for the start of the season.
She left many Wings fans bewildered, slotting Fabbri as the number one center and notably omitting all prospects who could potentially fill a spot in January outside of Filip Zadina. Despite Helene drawing harsh criticism from fans and pundits alike on Twitter and Facebook, there seemed to be an absence of alternative lineups being produced by those critiques.
Let's fix that.
Stipulations:
This roster is formed under the assumption that Dmytro Timashov will sign with Detroit before opening night.
This roster is formed under the assumption that any prospect loaned to the SHL will not be available until their loan team's season ends.
This roster is formed under the assumption there will be an AHL season starting at a relatively similar time.
This roster is formed under the assumption that teams will still only be allowed a 23 man roster.
The Blashill Blender™ will prevent any actual unit from staying together for any significant time. This lineup will mostly reflect even-strength time on ice (EVTOI) totals more than cohesive units.
Not Under Consideration - Red Wing’s Forwards
Riley Barber, Turner Elson, Chase Pearson, Dominic Turgeon, Kyle Criscuolo, Jared McIsaac, Joe Hicketts, Dylan McIlrath, Bryan Lashoff
All of those names being annexed from any list pertaining to the Detroit Red Wings should come as the furthest thing from a surprise. Riley Barber (26), Turner Elson (28), and Kyle Criscuolo (28) are AHL players through and through. All three are on the wrong side of 25 to even remotely be considered as prospects, and it would take a considerable amount of injuries and trades before the depth chart would fall low enough for one of them to make the team in Detroit for anything more than a brief stint due to injuries so that younger players can continue to play in Grand Rapids with no interruptions.
Dominic Turgeon could be slightly higher on the depth chart for the same reason. He's still young enough that you could hold a brief glimmer of hope for his future, but his potential upside is a bottom-six penalty-killing forward. Considering that Christoffer Ehn passed Dominic Turgeon on the depth chart and was just recently cut entirely by the team, the optimism for a future in Detroit for Turgeon should be very low.
Chase Pearson is still a prospect at age 23 who could definitely use a bit more conditioning and time in the minors. There's always that off chance, but the likelihood of Pearson seeing any time in Detroit this season is abysmally low.
Of the defensemen, Dylan McIlrath, Joe Hicketts, and Brian Lashoff are all AHL players in the same category as the forwards listed in the first paragraph of this section. The ship has sailed for Hicketts to make any type of impact with Detroit, while McIlrath and Lashoff can be seen as nothing more than potential injury relief with minimal risk of losing them over the waiver wire.
Jared McIsaac on the other hand is an interesting prospect who shows a lot of promise - when healthy. He's had two seasons in the QMJHL shortened by injury. He was recently loaned to HPK of the Finnish Liiga and only managed to play a few minutes of one game before an injury and subsequent recall forced him out again. He underwent surgery to his left shoulder and is currently slated to miss five to six months, putting him back in the conversation in March or April if things go according to plan.
If McIsaac can return in March or April, he likely won't be on the radar yet for Detroit. He will hopefully get back on track for development with either Grand Rapids or Toledo.
Red Wing’s Fringe Lineup Prospects
Just Outside
Michael Rasmussen, Taro Hirose, Givani Smith, Adam Erne, Alex Biega
The four names that didn't quite make the 23 man roster cut are all potential options to play sometime in Detroit this year. With the assumption that teams will not carry heavier rosters due to COVID complications, there's just not enough room on the Red Wings' roster for them to make the cut.
Michael Rasmussen's current career trajectory should have him lobbying for a spot with the NHL club. The 9th overall pick in the 2017 draft at age 21 had an injury-shortened campaign with the Grand Rapids Griffin's in 2019/2020, playing in just 35 of Griffin's 63 total contests.
In those games, Rasmussen managed to accumulate 7 goals and 15 assists totaling 22 points, an average of 0.63 points per game played. Unfortunately, the American Hockey League does not track time on ice.
Aside from personally watching Rasmussen, it's hard to give a more accurate gauge on his performance in each game. Rasmussen is currently playing with the Graz 99ers of the ICEHL based in Austria with a single assist through 2 contests with the team.
The ICEHL should be fairly far down any list of men's leagues when arranged by skill level and is clearly not a good place for Rasmussen to play in regards to his developmental path. With the AHL currently aiming for a February 5th start date in 2021, it's a fair assumption to preemptively place Rasmussen as a Griffin for their starting squad about a month after the currently projected January start for the NHL.
Should the AHL not start, or the NHL be granted expanded rosters similar to the NHL's playoff Return to Play bubble rules, Rasmussen should be one of, if not the, first in line to move up to the big club. He should also be fairly considered the first in line to be called up should significant injuries derail the main roster for the Red Wings.
The AHL might not be the correct spot for Rasmussen in terms of developing at this point, but he would need to show up a handful of players during training camp to get any potential spots over them.
Taro Hirose turned quite a few heads when he initially made his Red Wings debut, managing 7 points in just 10 games as a professional rookie during a season-ending hot streak for the Red Wings. "Taco" split his 2019/2020 season between Detroit and Grand Rapids, totaling 27 points in 35 games with Grand Rapids and 7 points in 26 games with Detroit.
Likewise, with Rasmussen, Hirose becomes an odd man out due to roster constraints until injuries or potentially trades open up space for him. At 24 years of age, Yzerman mostly knows what he has in Hirose, giving him the flexibility to allow Hirose to play sometime in the AHL once again until spots open up, putting him further down the pecking order than Rasmussen and some other players.
Also likewise with Rasmussen, it doesn't seem like the minor leagues would be the best spot to relegate Hirose to and he should easily be in contention for any roster spots that might become available should any veterans in Detroit not have a strong enough showing during training camp.
Givani Smith had a good showing during a relatively brief stint with the Red Wings in 2019/2020. Through 21 games, Smith produced 2 goals and an assist and was noticeable in his impact. He should see some ice time in Detroit should the opportunity arise for him, but time in Grand Rapids will still be beneficial for the 22-year-old.
Adam Erne's signing was perplexing given the players who were cut from the team as restricted free agents. After a 20 point 2018/2019 season with Tampa Bay, Erne managed only 5 points in 56 contests with the Red Wings in 2019/2020 and left a lot to be desired.
To most, he seemed to be one of the many problems weighing Detroit down but General Manager Steve Yzerman must see something in Erne that most seemingly do not.
Erne's signing boiled down to Detroit needing to field a team for the entire year. There have been plenty of injuries during recent seasons for the Red Wings. Compacting to that, there are 16 forwards currently under contract with Detroit with expiring contracts at the end of the season, all of them being trade bait with a varying rate of probability.
That said, Erne, starting the year outside of Detroit's locker room or press box boiled down to better options being available to Detroit.
Alex Biega could be on either side of the fence if only because of his handedness. Detroit will only have two right-handed defensemen ahead of him come the season's start. He's placed on the outside looking in on the premise that one of the left-handed defensemen who make the team will play their off-wing.
Just Made It
Image Credit: Capfriendly’s ArmChair GM
*Dmytro Timashov is signed for a $1Mx1 contract as a placeholder until his actual signing takes place.*
Frans Nielsen, Dmytro Timashov, Dennis Cholowski
Frans Nielsen, despite a popular theory earlier this month, avoided being bought out by Detroit after the secondary window was presented to Detroit following the Bertuzzi arbitration decision. He regressed a tremendous amount last season, producing an abysmal 9 points through 60 games with the Red Wings.
There is still something to be said of Nielsen's leadership ability, presumably off the ice. He's still a veteran presence and maintains accountability in the defensive end. Nielsen should be the first player to the chopping block should any of the forwards under the "On the Fringe - Just Outside" category have a strong showing during training camp.
Dymtro Timashov showed a lot in only five games with Detroit last season. A waiver pickup from Toronto, Timashov still has a fair amount of upside and potential to contribute offense from Detroit's bottom six.
He's yet to sign, but there's undoubtedly a contract coming, or else Yzerman would not have extended a qualifying offer to Timashov.
Dennis Cholowski is in the category of "Time to Show Up". Cholowski has had a few stints with Detroit and each time has ended up falling short and being sent back down. At only 22 years old it's certainly not like his time to shine is coming to an end, but he's being put on the fence by more and more pundits.
The off-season acquisitions of Staal and Merrill should certainly light a fire under young Cholowski, who will have to wait for his opportunity to play if he can't surpass one of four left-handed defensemen during training camp.
Detroit Red Wings 2021 Lineup -
Red Wing’s Forwards
Image Credit of Capfriendly’s ArmChair GM
*Anthony Mantha's contract was a placeholder. He has since signed for $5.7M AAV for 4 years.*
None of these names should be very surprising to be on the main roster come opening night sometime in 2021. A much more respectable lineup than last year's 17 win squad, Detroit should be much more competitive.
Ryan - Larkin - Mantha
Dylan Larkin is Detroit’s number one center. There is no one available on the roster currently that could even potentially surpass Dylan for the number one central spot. There isn’t anyone in the pipeline who even has a remote chance to surpass Dylan Larkin for the number one center position. That could be considered a weakness in Detroit’s farm but for now, his position there is solid and sacred.
Larkin centering a line with Anthony Mantha on a wing is no big surprise either. Even with the newest additions to Detroit, Mantha remains the forward with arguably the rawest skill, and certainly still the best shooter in the lineup until some of the prospects develop further. His spot on the top line, playing with the best overall forward on the team, is a no brainer.
On the left-wing is Red Wing’s newcomer Bobby Ryan. Ryan’s spot on the left-wing on the first line may be temporary given his age and lack of speed to keep up with younger players like Mantha, let alone Larkin. Ryan did however state in interviews after his signing that he had been working with a skating coach, so the potential to at least somewhat keep up with Larkin and Mantha is there. He gets the spot over a variety of options in order to help spread defensive depth. Spreading the depth was a consistent excuse for constantly blending the lines by Head Coach Jeff Blashill last season, but this season Detroit actually has a fair bit of offense to spread.
Bertuzzi - Namestnikov - Zadina
Starting with the most obvious “demotion”, Tyler Bertuzzi is going to find himself spending time away with Dylan Larkin and Anthony Mantha, despite the trio forming a productive and fan-favorite line last season.
Spending time away from Larkin and Mantha is good both for Bertuzzi and the Red Wings in general. Going go the second line helps spread the offense and allows for Bertuzzi to showcase his own skill, without having to have the label of “complimentary” slowing him down.
The experiment with pulling Bertuzzi consistently away from the top unit starts the season. The label of “complimentary” is completely fair, given that only 14 of Tyler Bertuzzi’s 48 points were tallied without Mantha or Larkin registering a point on the same goal as well. It’s time for Bertuzzi to show what he can do.
Vladislav Namestnikov was brought in to plug the second center hole that was glaringly obvious for Detroit last year. There’s no reason to assume he won’t fill the exact role he was brought in for, despite Fabbri attempting his own hand at center. Namestnikov can bring a bit of offense as well as good defensive accountability and is a perfect compliment for this line.
Filip Zadina slotting in right behind Mantha on the right-wing is just poetry in motion. Zadina continues to perfect his game and timing, and can potentially form chemistry with Tyler Bertuzzi in order to make more than one forward unit successful and productive this season.
Filppula - Fabbri - Svechnikov
Filppula is where the difficulty started in constructing this lineup. He was one of many Detroit Red Wings who had a rough season last year, specifically amongst the veterans. He’s still defensively responsible, albeit not as responsible as Nielsen, but the difference in point production last year gives Filppula the edge. Being capable of playing center himself, he makes the perfect complement to the line.
Fabbri isn’t entirely unfamiliar with playing center, but it feels like an eternity since he last was relied upon as a center. General Manager Steve Yzerman stated that there was a desire to attempt to try Fabbri at the center, so continuing with Bertuzzi all of the “experiments” are going to get underway right off the bat.
With how 2020 has been, Detroit won’t want to waste too much time in 2021 squandering opportunities to try things for future consideration. Fabbri didn’t have a very good defensive game for Detroit last season and will have to gain some composure in that category while relying heavily on Filppula to make up for defensive shortcomings during the trial at the center.
Svechnikov is the only real call-up for opening night. Svechnikov needs to be on the NHL roster. He missed all of the 2018/2019 season with a knee injury and performed relatively well in the AHL last year. He’s already 24 and has shown flashes of skill here and there, but never consistently enough to earn his way into the NHL.
Now is the time when Svechnikov needs to “put up or shut up” in the NHL, and unless he completely falls off in camp, he needs to have the benefit of the doubt to start in Detroit and earn himself a full-time NHL role. Anticipate Svechnikov to make the opening night roster. Hope Svechnikov sticks to the roster.
Glendening - Gagner - Helm
Glendening is an icon in Detroit and is one of the better penalty-killing forwards in the league. It should not be a surprise at all that Glendening makes the team on the fourth line. He showed an ability to move up and down the lineup and play with almost anybody at any position which is an extremely valuable asset to have.
Gagner became a fan favorite practically overnight and started working with the Michigan Community before his plane from Edmonton even landed. It was no surprise that Gagner was re-signed as one of the few right-handed forwards on the team, especially one who could play center. He’ll get a bit of power-play time on the second unit but likely won’t register all too high of EVTOI given the names ahead of him.
Darren Helm was one of the biggest question marks when creating this lineup, but there should be a belief that Helm can still contribute to this roster. He’s still fairly fast, he can still grind on the forecheck, and he can still contribute from the bottom six. If he can’t continue to perform as well as he did last year, he will be one of the first ones out of the lineup to bring in Timashov or any other youngster who performs well in camp and is knocking on the door of opportunity.
Defense
Image Credit: Capfriendly’s ArmChair GM
Detroit is still a bit lacking on the right side despite signing Stecher. The defensive pairings could be rather fluid, with only three of the six spots really locked in. Detroit's defense is improved by a wide margin over last year but still lacks any potential breakout stars aside from Hronek.
DeKeyser - Hronek
There's no question in mind regarding who Detroit's number one defensemen headed into the 2020/2021 season is. Filip Hronek statistically is leaps and bounds better than the rest of the competition, making him the easiest placement to make.
His defensive game has improved with time and is arguably the best defenseman at actually playing defense. Offensively, there's no real competition for him on Detroit's blue line.
Left-handed defensemen could see a fair amount of movement up and down the lineup. Danny DeKeyser placing as Detroit's number 1 left-handed defensemen is mostly guaranteed in terms of ice time.
He could potentially see some time on the powerplay if this lineup holds true and will be heavily relied upon to defend in all situations otherwise. His position as the number 1 left-handed defensemen is mostly unchallenged.
Staal - Stecher
Given that there are only two right-handed defensemen on the lineup here, Stecher should have no difficulty securing the second spot behind Hronek. He's a great two-way defender, especially in comparison to whom he replaced, and will contribute some offense in addition to being defensively sound.
Marc Staal begins the true definition of what's intended by "fluid". Staal could find himself on the second pair, third pair, or perhaps watching from the press box.
His experience and presence are perhaps worth more than his actual play on the ice, with his main value being the second-round draft pick that came with him. Penciling Staal into the second pair is done with an eraser ready in hand and done mostly to secure the bottom pair by partnering him with Stecher.
Nemeth - Merill
Both of these players are going to be relied upon to block shots and play the body. They're both arguably better at this point of their career than Staal, but placing them together and giving Staal a better partner in Stecher gives the bottom pair a bit more strength.
As mentioned previously, either of these players could move to the second pair instead of Staal depending on how things are going for the Red Wings. They'll likely both see ice time on the penalty kill more religiously than Staal.
As far as who plays their "wrong side" is anyone's guess. Both are better options than Biega and should be a routine part of the lineup as long as the player on their opposite side continues to perform well.
Goaltending
Image Credit: Capfriendly’s ArmChair GM
There's really not much to say in terms of the goalie situation in Detroit. While there are options in Grand Rapids should an injury occur, Bernier and Greiss are going to be the duo in Detroit without a shadow of a doubt.
In this lineup model, Bernier gains the benefit of the doubt and secures the starting position. He played very well for Detroit last year and holds seniority in net. There would be no surprise if the two of them rotate frequently rather than the traditional "Starter and Backup" routine, but expect Bernier to have command of the crease unless Greiss can pull it away from him during the season.
Summary
Detroit will head into the 2020/2021 season sporting a much more competitive lineup than they did during the 17 win campaign last year. Svechnikov becomes the only name that brings any type of shock value when placed in the opening night lineup, with the rest, aside from exact placements, being fairly obvious.
With 16 pending free agents and a history of injury issues with certain players on the roster, there's going to be a tremendous amount of fluidity in the lineup. Let alone the potential of an expanded roster due to COVID complications that could see different players rotating in and out of the lineup on a nightly basis.
There's plenty of spots in the lineup that are up for grabs for players that are on the outside looking in with General Manager Steve Yzerman showing that he does not seem to have the "veteran loyalty" issue that his predecessor was consistently faulted for.
Many of the lineup decisions will be made by Head Coach Jeff Blashill, with the Blashill Blender™ likely coming out after no more than a single period, but expect Yzerman to have a fair amount of input on who's playing on a nightly basis and where they're playing.
With stronger lineup composition there could be more than a few breakout performances. With potentially less sustained pressure against, a healthy Mantha could put up 70+ points. Zadina could find his stride and his timing and put up north of 50 points. Depending on divisional alignment, the Red Wings could even potentially make the playoffs under unusual circumstances.
Unlike the abysmal outlook on last year's team, this is a season for Detroit fans to be excited. If there is no divisional realignment there shouldn't be too high of expectations for Detroit to exit the basement, but the potential for a much more competitive and fun team is definitely there.
#LGRW
Thumbnail Photo Credit: Roy K. Miller/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
