Bertuzzi's Worth

Bertuzzi representing Detroit at the 2019/2020 All Star Game.
NHL.COM

Written by: Jesse L. (@jcleist17)

After nearly exhausting a forty-eight-hour window, the arbiter overseeing the case between the Detroit Red Wings and restricted free agent Tyler Bertuzzi made a final decision on salary, awarding Bertuzzi a $3.5M salary.  The final price was closer to Yzerman's initial offer of $3.15M than Bertuzzi's camp's initial ask of $4.25M.  To no one's surprise, Detroit elected to pursue a one year term after the salary was determined by the arbiter, even with an option for two years available to Yzerman.  

Initial projections by Prashanth and Evolving Wild before the arbitration saw Bertuzzi likely seeking a salary north of $5M in average annual value.  Bertuzzi's asking price of $4.25M left many Red Wings pundits confused, most seeing it as a reasonable salary for Bertuzzi moving forward so long as the term stayed under five years.

Albeit players filing for arbitration can be seen as somewhat normal, actually going through the arbitration hearing with no settlement is far from ordinary.  Bertuzzi's case being settled by the arbiter marked the first time since 2009 that Detroit could not compromise with their player before the deadline. With Jiri Hudler being awarded a $2.875M average annual value over a two-year term.  

The main concern with the Bertuzzi situation has been one of the relations.  It's a fair assumption to think that an event like an arbitration case, especially given that arbitration was completely required and no settlement could be made, would sour relations between the player and the team. 

Bertuzzi had quickly become a fan favorite due to his work ethic and occasional flashes of skill, causing concern to run rampant amongst the fanbase when no settlement was reached.  Fans were reminded of all the issues surrounding Athanasiou and his long hold-out a few years ago. 

During the press conference on the 28th, Bertuzzi stated that while he hasn't talked to Yzerman or any other front office staff since the hearing, he took nothing personal from the hearing and understands the nature of the business, going on to say that both he and the Red Wings were on the same page in regards to "wanting to win."  Taking his word at face value, along with a complete lack of considerable noise regarding any potential attitude issues, it seems that the arbitration hearing was just business. 

Unlike Athanasiou a few years ago, Bertuzzi electing for arbitration guaranteed that a deal would be made in a timely fashion to secure his spot for at least one more year.  The lack of noise, combined with the lack of potential drama but Bertuzzi electing for arbitration in this scenario, makes a considerable case for Bertuzzi being with the team for the future, with potentially only minimal damage to the relationship between Bertuzzi and the Red Wings organization.  

The next pressing question has mostly revolved around what Bertuzzi was really worth?  The initial projections that were north of a $5M average annual value salary combined with minimal separation between Tyler Bertuzzi's camp and the Red Wings heading into arbitration, and Bertuzzi's ask being well below what was often considered fair market value for a player of his caliber, left a lot of pundits scratching their heads when no settlement could be reached.  Most assumed it was an issue of term duration on the contract, but it leaves us asking the question; What is Tyler Bertuzzi truly worth?

To determine what Bertuzzi's value truly is on the cap, and specifically to the Red Wings, with some considerations to the current cap's COVID-19 implications, the best course of action is to look at comparable players.  

Comparable #1: Pavel Buchnevich




Pavel Buchnevich stretching.
NHLI via Getty Images

Statistics used are from time-of-signing.

Bertuzzi and Pavel Buchnevich, as comparables, are separated by only inches.  Bertuzzi was one year older than Buchnevich when signing his deal and both deals expire at the conclusion of the 2020/2021 campaign, with both players remaining restricted free agents at the expiration.  

Buchnevich's slight edge in points per sixty minutes played can be explained by the superior team he played for.  Bertuzzi's slight edge in points per game played can likewise be explained away by his minutes playing on Detroit's top line with Dylan Larkin.

Basic statistics will show you that both Bertuzzi and Buchnevich are headed in the same trajectory.  Despite the Wings being embarrassingly bad during the 2019/2020 campaign, Tyler Bertuzzi tied his career-high in goals (21) and beat both his assist (26) and point (46) career highs by one in 2 fewer games.  It also bears considering that he did so in a season that Anthony Mantha, the other winger for the top line in Detroit, missed nearly half the season.  

Buchnevich, on the other hand, since signing the 2-year deal in the table above, has surpassed his career-high in points with 46 during the shortened 2019/2020 campaign.  Buchnevich, dependent on the cap situation at the end of the upcoming season, will likely be due a raise.  

If anything, concerning COVID's implication on the salary cap and teams' willingness to spend, using Buchnevich as a comparable for Bertuzzi's salary would make it seem like Bertuzzi was underpaid this year.  His points per game total were marginally higher on a much worse team.  Detroit was allowed to select the term of the contract after the arbiter awarded Bertuzzi his salary.  Under normal negotiating circumstances, Bertuzzi likely should have gotten a marginally higher salary for a one year deal, perhaps closer to the $4M range.  

Comparable #2: Andre Burakovsky

Andre Burakovsky lifts the Stanley Cup as a member of the Washington Capitals in 2018.
Ethan Miller, Getty Images

Statistics used are from time-of-signing.

Once again, Bertuzzi finds himself in some reasonably good company, with a slight edge in most categories over Andre Burakovsky.  Bertuzzi was once also a single year older than his comparable while carrying a sizable advantage in points per game and a slight advantage in points per 60.  Burakovsky came into his deal with an edge in games played and overall points.  

The most important takeaway here is the year after for Burakovsky.  Burakovsky signed his one-year RFA deal with the Colorado Avalance in July of 2019.  He followed up this signing with a great campaign for a great team.  Burakovsky finished the year with 20 goals, 25 assists, and 45 points in 58 games.  This increase was due to playing with a high flying offense in Colorado, who finished third in the NHL for goals scored.  The other part of the rise was a tremendous increase in ice time for Burakovsky.  Burakovsky averaged 15:12 a night in total time on ice, over a minute higher than his previous career-high, 13:50 with Washington in 2017/2018, which was the year the Capitals won the Stanley Cup.  

Burakovsky's point total in the 2019/2020 campaign earned him another two-year contract with Colorado.  This time, the contract's average annual value carries a hit of $4.9M.  His new contract, which is $650,000 more expensive than Bertuzzi's initial ask into arbitration, was earned with less actual points than Bertuzzi had during the 2019/2020 season. Burakovsky had an obvious advantage in points per game and points per sixty.  This, again, calls for anyone weighing the two against each other also to consider the teams involved.  Burakovsky's Colorado Avalanche placed second place in the Western Conference with a 42-20-8 record.  Bertuzzi's Detroit Red Wings placed dead last in the league with a 17-49-5 record.  

Drawing comparisons of Bertuzzi to Burakovsky draws much the same conclusion as drawing comparisons of Bertuzzi to Buchnevich.  Bertuzzi has seemingly been underpaid, and the original $4.25M asking price still does not seem all too expensive.  

Comparable #3: Brandon Saad

Brandon Saad
NHL . com

Statistics used are from time-of-signing.

At the time of Brandon Saad's signing, the $6M average annual value was worth about 8.22% of the total cap.  Tyler Bertuzzi's deal at $3.5M is only worth about 4.29% of Detroit's 2020/2021 total cap.  8.22% of the current $81.5M contract would be worth about $6.69M AAV.  So why was Brandon Saad worth so much more than Tyler Bertuzzi is to the Red Wings now? 

When Saad signed the $6MX6 contract with the Columbus Blue Jackets in the summer of 2015, Brandon Saad was regarded as one of the more skilled forwards around the league.  At only 22, he had already played 208 games and was averaging, as referenced above, 0.61 points per game and 2.18 points per 60 minutes played. 

He was signed to a relatively long term deal so that, with cap increases over time, it would be six years before he could ask for a raise.  At the time, the thought was that Saad was worth the $6M contract, and cashing in for term now would save Columbus from having to sign him for even more in a few years.  

Saad, 28, is currently entering the last year of the 6 year deal (he signed with Columbus).  He's been traded twice since signing the agreement (which featured no protection until the very last season), currently slated to begin the 2020/2021 NHL season for Colorado.  Since signing the contract, Saad has played 380 games, registering 117 goals, 104 assists, and 221 points.  That equates to 0.58 points per game and a 2.02 points per 60 rating.  Both being considerably lower than Bertuzzi.  

Specifically, in this past year, Bertuzzi's contract year, Saad registered 21 goals and 12 assists for 33 points in 58 games, equaling to a point per game rate of 0.56 and a points per 60 rating of 2.04, both considerably lower than Tyler Bertuzzi. Yet Colorado was willing to pay the $6M price tag for Saad, giving up a 25-year-old top four defensemen for the right to pay Saad more money than Bertuzzi for what is essentially less production.

The True Worth

There's been a lot of thought that Tyler Bertuzzi is nothing more than a complementary player.  Comparisons have been drawn between Bertuzzi and the recently bought-out Justin Abdelkader.  Abdelkader has the reputation of being nothing more than a "piano-puller" for the Euro twins, and his production fell off dramatically due to the departure of the Euro twins. 

Of Justin Abdelkader's 42 goals in the 2014/15 season and 2015/16 season, Datsyuk assisted on only 4 of those goals, and Zetterberg assisted on 21 of them.  Yet none seem to remember Abdelkader for his production, and nothing more than a corner's guy for Datsyuk and Zetterberg.  

While very few will argue that Bertuzzi is more skilled than Justin Abdelkader, the same complaint has been thrown about with some consistency.  "Bertuzzi is just a complementary player; he can't score on his own; he wouldn't be in the top 6 anywhere else in the NHL." 

All of those, at face value, are legitimate concerns.  However, Bertuzzi has proven to be consistent throughout this first portion of his NHL career.  Tyler Bertuzzi has proven to be hard working.  Tyler Bertuzzi has proven to be skilled.  Tyler Bertuzzi has proven to be worth every cent of the $4.25M he was asking for with a medium length in the term.  

In Yzerman's defense, he had just bought out Justin Abdelkader before being faced with the Tyler Bertuzzi contract negotiations.  Anthony Mantha is still waiting in the wings to be signed, as is Dmytro Timashov, and the last thing that a GM wants to do is buy out a bad contract just to sign another one.  I mean, no one would trade assets to move Marc Staal just to sign Jack Johnson, right?

Bertuzzi's initial ask of a $4.25M contract could have been ideal, perhaps on a three or four-year term.  Of course, there has to be consideration of the complicated cap situation throughout the NHL. Of course, there has to be consideration towards a GM's hesitation to sign long-term deals when the biggest concern for the Red Wings is currently digging themselves out from years of damage caused by them. 

But to say Tyler Bertuzzi is only worth $3.5M when Brandon Saad is making $6M?  When Andre Burakovsky is making $4.9M?  That seems a little bit absurd. 

There is an understandably small sample size for Bertuzzi. Of course, there are prospects in Detroit's system which could potentially replace Bertuzzi during potentially contending seasons for Detroit in a few years.  However, Bertuzzi very clearly deserves more than the price he was awarded and should be looking to cash in at the end of another successful NHL season in 2020/2021.    



Thumbnail photo by Mike Mulholland of Mlive.com.

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