Tampa Bay Lightning (18-4-2, 38 points) at Detroit Red Wings (7-16-4, 18 points)

 3-11-2021

Tonight's Venue: Little Caesars Arena

All-Time DET vs TB Record at Venue: 1-4-1

Season Series vs TB: 0-2-1

Goaltender Probable

J. Bernier (.910 SV%, 2.94 GAA)

A. Vasilevskiy (.936 SV%, 1.79 GAA)

DRAFT KINGS ODDS

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DET: Puckline +1.5 (+102), Moneyline +275

TB: Puckline -1.5 (-122), Moneyline -335

Players to Watch

Players to watch (DET): F. Zadina, D. Larkin, A. Mantha

Players to watch (TB): V. Hedman, B. Point, B. Goodrow

Detroit Red Wings vs Tampa Bay Lightning Predictions

Jesse's Prediction: 5-1 Lightning

Matt's Prediction: 4-2 Lightning

Mike's Prediction: 5-3 Lightning

Lightning at Red Wings Preview, 3-11-2021

Of all the results that made perfect sense, so far this season, the first two games played against the Tampa Bay Lightning earlier this year lined up with everyone’s predictions going in. It was ugly. It was one-sided. And it didn’t make us excited for the next meeting.

Tampa Bay took down the Red Wings, 5-1. The Lightning scored 3 goals in less than five minutes and it was smooth sailing from there. The second game was certainly a tighter defended exhibition, but the stacked roster of the Lightning comes equipped with a Vezina favorite, Andrei Vasilevskiy.

The Red Wings did a wonderful job in periods 1 and 2, but 20% Corsi For and xGF% in the 3rd helped the Lightning tie it up. Then in OT, a bad line change led to Coleman’s game winner. It just seems like, whatever the Red Wings do right against the Lightning, eventually it turns on them.

Whether the Red Wings want to try and compete with Tampa’s offense (yikes) or remove scoring from the equation, the Lightning have to tools to outplay Detroit.  It’s something that in this era of Hockeytown we’ve grown accustomed to not being the favorite to win, but the Lightning seem to take that notion to another level, especially considering the Red Wings are 1-8-1 in their last 10 against the Tampa.

What do the Red Wings need to do to beat (arguably) the best team in hockey? It would be irresponsible of me to lead Red Wings fans on, considering the Lightning currently own these statistical standings:

• Lead the Central division 

• Lead league in GF/G

• 5th in PP/3rd in PK

• Best shot and save % in the league

• Victor Hedman 24 pts in 23 games

• Steven Stamkos, Brayden Point, & Ondrej Palat fighting to a point per game pace

• Andrei Vasilevskiy 2nd in Save Percentage and 2nd in GAA

But in the world of bouncing pucks on a slick ice surface, there is always a chance. So let’s see if we can find a win!

Keys to the Game

1. Don’t Let Up - Keep your foot in the accelerator. The Red Wings got lunched in the 3rd period and it was because of a choice to try and hold the lead. For the most part, it helped keep the game close, but the boys looked hungry for more. I would have let them feast.

2. Be Responsible - Don’t let the Lightning own a period because of special teams. Don’t take bad penalties. This is one of the best power-play units of the past decade. They danced around our PK. The best way to prevent that is to limit your short-handed situations by playing smarter hockey.

3. Hockey Gods Generosity - We said ‘pray to the Hockey Gods’ in our last preview and they actually answered our prayers. Vasilevskiy’s .870 Sv% was his second worst performance of the year. We just need something like that tonight. So how generous will the hockey gods be?

Knowing that the Hockey Gods were quite generous on Tuesday, with their offerings, puts quite the damper on our chances for tonight. It seems silly to use the “law of averages” to argue why the Red Wings won’t beat the Lightning (you know…because skill, talent, and coaching seem to be a large deficit as well), but I don’t see another 3 goal night for the Wings.

It’s boring, but it’s the most responsible prediction one can come up with. The Lightning are going to continue their dominance over Detroit and win at Little Caesars Arena.

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