Namestnikov's First Goal Helps Start Reset in Dallas
Hi everybody and welcome to Episode 15 of Season 2 of Red Wings Rant hosted by the Brothers of Discussion and brought to you by the Hockey Podcast Network. Where tirades and impassioned pleas about your Detroit Red Wings, finally, have a home.
After a rough weekend in Chicago, the Red Wings are ready to get back to their...strategically effective ways of staying in games long enough to keep us interested but still lose in the end.
Vladislav Namestnikov gets his first with the Red Wings and there is something to the Blashill strategy that we should talk about.
Where are the holes on this team? It’s coming from one likely source and one not so likely.
Namestnikov’s First Goal Helps Start Reset in Dallas
Red Wings Make it to OT in Dallas Stars
Vladislav Namestnikov scores his first goal of the season and his first goal with the Detroit Red Wings.
Namestnikov has quietly had a serviceable season from the perspective of scoring chances. As the 5th ranked forward on the team, behind Larkin, Ryan, Mantha, and Bertuzzi, Namestnikov started the season with some great looking chances on the rush, but ultimately lacked the finish to hit the back of the net.
Vladdy kept pushing and his IQ for the game helped him find his reward as Taro Hirose found him out front for a great backhand opportunity. And don’t forget, this goal happened because two successive puck battles were won by Givani Smith and Taro Hirose.
The hope going forward, especially after seeing the relief running across Namestnikov’s face, is that he can build some momentum and be one of the answers to finding more secondary scoring opportunities.
For the rest of the game, the line of Namestnikov, Anthony Mantha, and Bobby Ryan led all forward lines in xGF (.46), xGF% (96.58 %), and High Danger Chances (3). Going into game number three, let’s hope we see this line combination again, while the likes of Bertuzzi and Larkin continue to work well together.
While this goes without saying, having a strong second line start to come together could mean great things for this team now that we through the first tenth of the season. The Red Wings are still waiting on the return of Filip Zadina and Robby Fabbri, which could provide a third option, should this all come together.
Red WIngs Low Event Strategy (Jeff Blashill’s strategy) Nearly Lands a Win
1st and 3rd period xGF% 67.15% and 61.72%
HDCF % for the game 58.33
For the Red Wings, it is extremely important that they limit chances in their games while Steve Yzerman continues to try and build a winning roster. The idea is to keep games close heading into the third period, allowing the likes of Dylan Larkin, Anthony Mantha, and puck luck to find a win.
The Red Wings’ only goal came from some hard-nosed corner puck battle victories and good awareness and positioning by a skilled veteran in Vladdy Namestnikov. This is essentially the difference between landing a scoring opportunity through pin-point passing, speed, and elite-level shooting skill and instead, a goal earned through tenacious board play. SOmething we predicted at the start of the season, would be a majority of the Wings’ best scoring opportunities.
If the Red Wings are going to win more games, they can’t lapse in the effort, as we saw in Chicago. We are already seeing that even with Mantha’s strong start from possession and xGF% standpoint, he still isn’t seeing the goals and assists piling up.
Red Wings through First Tenth of the Season
2-4-1 (5 points) 7th in Central
PDO 97.7%
Shooting % - 5.3 (Avg 7.8)
Save% -.924 (Avg .922)
The Red Wings currently sit at 97.7% PDO, with their shot percentage weighing them down, at 5.3%. The 5.3% shooting percentage puts the Red Wings at 27th and 2.5 percentage points below the league average. The law of averages suggests this number should increase, but last season we finished at 5.9%. An increase, but not as much of an increase as we’d need.
For the Red Wings to see that shooting percentage increase, they’ll have to be patient and wait for the return of Robby Fabbri (currently shooting 25%) and Filip Zadina (oiSH% of 16.7%).
The other key is Anthony Mantha’s numbers increasing from the astronomically bad 3.9 oiSH%. Mantha has not eclipsed the 100 PDO mark in the last three seasons. In his last two seasons, Mantha enjoyed a higher On-Ice Shooting Percentage of 8.1% in 2018-19 and then 9.6% in 2019-20. Even his career average is 8.5%.
While the Red Wings tread water waiting for the return of Zadina and Fabbri, things aren’t as bad as they seem. Even using the eye-ball test (and especially if you eliminate the two-game series with the Blackhawks) this team is performing better than last season.
Now we just need to wait for the law of averages to catch up with 3 of our top 6 forwards.
Game Two
8:30 PM EST, Tonight's Venue: American Airlines Center
Jonathan Bernier: .889 SV% 3.33 GAA
Limit Dallas Powerplays
They are currently 9 of 16 at 56.25%
Florida Panthers (3-0-0)
Saturday 1/30 - 7PM
Sunday 1/31 - 5 PM
Recent Game Results
Florida Panthers Stats to Watch: 103.5 PDO, 10.5 SV%
Florida Panthers Players to Watch
Bobrovsky: 879 SV%, 3.35 GAA
Vs Detroit 15-5-1 .935 SV% 1.96 GAA (11/2/19 Shutout, 1/18/20 27 saves .964 1 Goal Against)
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